Pan et al. (2026) Impacts of Bogus Vortex Initialization Using Scatterometer-Derived 34 kt Wind Radii and Centers on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Remote Sensing
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-14
• Authors: W.J. Pan, Xiaolei Zou, Yihong Duan
• DOI: 10.3390/rs18020263

Research Groups

[The paper does not explicitly list the research groups, labs, or departments involved. However, based on the content, the study likely originates from a research group focused on tropical cyclone forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and atmospheric modeling.]

Short Summary

This study demonstrates that initializing typhoon forecasts with a scatterometer wind-based bogus vortex significantly improves the initial vortex representation and subsequent intensity and structural forecasts for Typhoon Doksuri (2023), while slightly enhancing track forecasts.

Objective

• To investigate whether a scatterometer wind-based bogus vortex initialization scheme can improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts, specifically for Typhoon Doksuri (2023).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Two-way nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 9 km and 3 km, covering the western North Pacific.
• Temporal Scale: Forecasts for Typhoon Doksuri (2023), covering its rapid intensification and weakening stages.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model, configured with 115 vertical levels below a model top at 1 hPa (100 Pa).
• Data sources:
  • Scatterometer wind observations (used to derive the bogus vortex and its center).
  • NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) analysis (for the initial vortex in control runs).
  • Himawari-9 AHI (Advanced Himawari Imager) infrared observations (for forecast validation and comparison of structural features).
  • A regression model linking the scatterometer wind-derived 17.49 m/s (34 kt) wind radius with the radius of maximum sea-level pressure gradient (for Fujita’s bogus formula).

Main Results

• The scatterometer wind-bogus scheme provides a more realistic representation of the low-level circulation, center location, and intensity in initial conditions.
• It effectively improves the initial vortex position and minimum sea-level pressure.
• Forecasts show a slight enhancement in track prediction.
• Substantial improvements are observed in intensity forecasts, particularly during the rapid intensification and weakening stages of Typhoon Doksuri.
• Comparisons with Himawari-9 AHI infrared observations indicate that forecasts with bogus vortex initialization better reproduce the eye, eyewall, and spiral rainband structures.

Contributions

• Demonstrates a novel application of scatterometer wind observations for improving tropical cyclone initial conditions through a bogus vortex scheme.
• Provides quantitative evidence of improved initial vortex characteristics (position, minimum sea-level pressure) and subsequent forecast accuracy (intensity, track, structure).
• Highlights the value of scatterometer data for enhancing the realism of low-level circulation and structural features in typhoon forecasts, especially during critical intensification and weakening phases.

Funding

[The paper text does not provide information regarding specific funding projects, programs, or reference codes.]

Citation

@article{Pan2026Impacts,
  author = {Pan, W.J. and Zou, Xiaolei and Duan, Yihong},
  title = {Impacts of Bogus Vortex Initialization Using Scatterometer-Derived 34 kt Wind Radii and Centers on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts},
  journal = {Remote Sensing},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/rs18020263},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020263}
}