Yu et al. (2026) Investigating the Dry–Wet Differentiation of the Yellow River Basin Driven by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities

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Identification

• Journal: Remote Sensing
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-24
• Authors: Qiuli Yu, Siwei Chen, Yue‐Ping Xu, Yu Guo, Haoran Gu, Hao Chen, Xin Tian
• DOI: 10.3390/rs18070974

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigates the long-term evolution and driving mechanisms of dry-wet patterns in the Yellow River Basin, constructing a TWSA-DSI for historical analysis (1995–2014) and projecting future changes (2026–2100) under SSP scenarios, finding a historical shift from aridification to humidification and projecting continued humidification driven primarily by precipitation.

Objective

• To characterize the spatiotemporal dry-wet heterogeneity and long-term evolution of the Yellow River Basin using a Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly-based Drought Severity Index (TWSA-DSI).
• To project future dry-wet changes in the Yellow River Basin during the near future (2026–2060) and far future (2061–2100) under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios.
• To establish a comprehensive driving factor system and quantify the controlling mechanisms of terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) in the Yellow River Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yellow River Basin
• Temporal Scale: Historical period: 1995–2014; Future projections: 2026–2100, divided into near future (2026–2060) and far future (2061–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly-based Drought Severity Index (TWSA-DSI) construction; Dominance analysis for quantifying driving mechanisms; Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) for future projections.
• Data sources: Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA); comprehensive driving factors including vegetation cover, land use, meteorological conditions, and socio-economic factors.

Main Results

• The Yellow River Basin experienced a historical transition from aridification to humidification during the 1995–2014 period.
• Future dry-wet conditions are projected to differ markedly from the historical period, with the basin shifting toward overall humidification.
• The degree of future humidification is projected to increase as emissions increase across the SSP scenarios.
• The driving mechanisms for aridification and humidification are significantly different.
• Precipitation is identified as the decisive driving factor influencing the dry-wet evolution of the Yellow River Basin.
• Especially in the far future under the SSP585 scenario, the proportion of precipitation as a driving factor is as high as 54.9%.

Contributions

• Development and application of a Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly-based Drought Severity Index (TWSA-DSI) for characterizing spatiotemporal dry-wet heterogeneity.
• Long-term analysis of dry-wet pattern evolution and future projections under multiple SSP scenarios for the Yellow River Basin.
• Establishment of a comprehensive driving factor system and quantification of controlling mechanisms for terrestrial water storage change, highlighting the dominant role of precipitation.
• Provides scientific support for sustainable water-resource management strategies in the Yellow River Basin under climate change.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yu2026Investigating,
  author = {Yu, Qiuli and Chen, Siwei and Xu, Yue‐Ping and Guo, Yu and Gu, Haoran and Chen, Hao and Tian, Xin},
  title = {Investigating the Dry–Wet Differentiation of the Yellow River Basin Driven by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities},
  journal = {Remote Sensing},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/rs18070974},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18070974}
}