Leng et al. (2026) Rising Risk of Thermokarst Lake Drainage on the Mongolian Plateau Under Future Warming

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Remote Sensing
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-17
• Authors: Caiqi Leng, Wenhui Liu, Sha Yang, Jingjing Wang, Heming Yang, Zhengtao Zhou
• DOI: 10.3390/rs18183207

Research Groups

• Institute of Remote Sensing, Key Laboratory for Digital Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study develops a future-compatible drainage risk assessment framework to predict thermokarst lake drainage on the Mongolian Plateau under climate change. The model identifies areas with elevated relative drainage risk levels as warming continues.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of permafrost thaw on thermokarst lake drainage in mid-latitude regions, specifically the Mongolian Plateau

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Mongolian Plateau)
• Temporal Scale: 2003–2100, with a focus on 2020 baseline and future projections to 2081–2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) modelling
• Data sources:
  • Landsat-derived drainage mapping
  • Environmental predictors (e.g., mean annual ground temperature, thawing degree days)
  • Climate projections from six global climate models (GCMs)

Main Results

• The model identified 12,448 lakes (39.16%) that exceeded the fixed top 10% threshold by 2081–2100 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• High-risk lakes formed spatially coherent clusters in the northern, western and northeastern MP.
• Environmental association analysis showed mean annual ground temperature as the most closely related factor to drainage risk.

Contributions

This study provides a future-compatible drainage risk assessment framework for thermokarst lake drainage on mid-latitude permafrost regions. The findings highlight areas with elevated relative drainage risk levels under climate change, contributing to our understanding of permafrost thaw impacts.

Funding

• National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1503504)
• Norwegian Research Council (grant number 262813)
• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant (award number 2020-123456)

Citation

@article{Leng2026Rising,
  author = {Leng, Caiqi and Liu, Wenhui and Yang, Sha and Wang, Jingjing and Yang, Heming and Zhou, Zhengtao},
  title = {Rising Risk of Thermokarst Lake Drainage on the Mongolian Plateau Under Future Warming},
  journal = {Remote Sensing},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/rs18183207},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18183207}
}