Otop et al. (2026) Seasonal Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Relation to Circulation Conditions in the Sudetes Mountains

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Irena Otop, Bartłomiej Miszuk
• DOI: 10.3390/w18010103

Research Groups

Polish and Czech meteorological services and research institutions focusing on climatology and hydrology.

Short Summary

This study examines multiannual (1961–2020) changes in seasonal heavy precipitation in the Polish-Czech Sudetes Mountains and its relationship with atmospheric circulation. It finds that heavy precipitation changes are non-homogeneous and significantly influenced by the chosen indices, seasons, and local geographic factors like slope exposition, particularly under specific circulation types.

Objective

• To examine multiannual changes in seasonal heavy precipitation between 1961–2020 in the Polish-Czech Sudetes Mountains.
• To assess the relationship between these heavy precipitation changes and atmospheric circulation patterns.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The Polish-Czech Sudetes Mountains and their northern foreland, covering various altitudes and geographical regions.
• Temporal Scale: A 60-year period from 1961 to 2020, analyzed seasonally for multiannual changes.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Lityński classification for atmospheric circulation analysis.
• Data sources: Observation data from Polish and Czech meteorological stations. Derived indices include 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day maximum precipitation, as well as precipitation exceeding the 90th and 95th percentile thresholds.

Main Results

• Changes in heavy precipitation over the 60-year period generally do not show homogeneous directions.
• The observed changes are strongly influenced by the specific precipitation indices applied, the season of the year, and various geographic factors.
• Geographic factors, particularly northern/southern slope exposition, significantly determine heavy precipitation under specific atmospheric circulation conditions typical for individual seasons.
• North and northeast atmospheric circulation types contribute to higher rates of heavy precipitation indices, especially in the northern part of the Sudetes Mountains.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, long-term (60-year) analysis of heavy precipitation trends and their link to atmospheric circulation in the flood-prone Polish-Czech Sudetes Mountains.
• Highlights the critical role of local geographic factors, such as slope exposition, in modulating the relationship between atmospheric circulation and heavy precipitation.
• Utilizes multiple precipitation indices (maxima and percentile-based) for a robust assessment of heavy precipitation characteristics.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Otop2026Seasonal,
  author = {Otop, Irena and Miszuk, Bartłomiej},
  title = {Seasonal Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Relation to Circulation Conditions in the Sudetes Mountains},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18010103},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18010103}
}