Rastgoo et al. (2026) Integrated Spatio-Temporal Drought Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in Iran

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-27
• Authors: Pejvak Rastgoo, Atefeh Torkaman Pary, Ayoub Moradi, Dirk Zeuss, Temesgen Alemayehu Abera
• DOI: 10.3390/w18030315

Research Groups

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Short Summary

This study comprehensively assessed the spatio-temporal changes in drought risk across Iran from 2000 to 2019 by integrating climatic, socio-economic, and demographic factors. It found that drought risk increased in 57% of Iran, particularly in the northwest, west, and central regions, while declining in 21% of the area, predominantly in the northern and southern regions of the Alborz Mountains.

Objective

• To comprehensively assess the spatio-temporal changes in drought risk from 2000 to 2019 across Iran, accounting for drought hazard, vulnerability, and population exposure using integrated socio-economic, agricultural, demographic, and climate factors.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Across Iran
• Temporal Scale: 2000 to 2019

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for drought hazard, Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) method for drought vulnerability.
• Data sources: SPEI (derived from climatic data), multiple socio-economic and demographic data, population density data.

Main Results

• Drought risk increased in 57% of the area of Iran, mainly in the northwest, west, and central regions, at a rate of up to 10% per year.
• Drought risk declined in 21% of the area of Iran, predominantly in the northern and southern regions of the Alborz Mountains (including Tehran, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Khorasan Razavi provinces), by up to 10% per year.
• The spatial patterns of drought risk vary across Iran and are modulated by the interaction between climatic and socio-economic factors.

Contributions

• Provides the first integrated study in Iran that accounts for socio-economic, agricultural, demographic, and climate factors in a comprehensive drought risk assessment.
• Offers useful information for drought risk management and intervention strategies in Iran.

Funding

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Rastgoo2026Integrated,
  author = {Rastgoo, Pejvak and Pary, Atefeh Torkaman and Moradi, Ayoub and Zeuss, Dirk and Abera, Temesgen Alemayehu},
  title = {Integrated Spatio-Temporal Drought Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in Iran},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18030315},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18030315}
}