Nazari et al. (2026) A System Dynamics Approach to Integrating Climate Resilience and Water Productivity to Attain Water Resource Sustainability

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-27
• Authors: Bijan Nazari, Elahe Kanani, Arezoo Kazemi, Hossein Hamidifar, Michael Nones
• DOI: 10.3390/w18030320

Research Groups

• Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
• Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
• Department of Hydrology and Hydrodynamics, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

Short Summary

This study developed an integrated System Dynamics model coupled with CMIP6 climate projections to evaluate adaptation strategies for agricultural resilience and water resource sustainability in the Qazvin Plain, Iran. It found that demand-side management and crop pattern optimization can stabilize the aquifer and boost agricultural value added by 7.4% despite projected climate-induced declines.

Objective

• To develop an integrated System Dynamics (SD) model coupled with CMIP6 climate projections to evaluate adaptation strategies for agricultural resilience and water resource sustainability in the Qazvin Plain, Iran, under various climate change scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Qazvin Plain aquifer, Qazvin Province, Iran (approximately 15,800 km²).
• Temporal Scale:
  • Meteorological drivers baseline: 1993–2024.
  • Model calibration and historical validation: 2006–2024.
  • Future scenario analysis and projection: 2024–2062 (with 2041 as a key planning horizon).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • System Dynamics (SD) model (implemented using Vensim PLE 10.4.0 software).
  • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585 scenarios).
  • Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for downscaling GCM outputs.
• Data sources:
  • Qazvin Meteorological Organization: Daily and monthly precipitation and mean temperature (2006–2024).
  • Qazvin Regional Water Authority: Monthly streamflow and groundwater level (2006–2024).
  • Qazvin Agriculture Organization: Seasonal crop pattern/land use data (2006–2024).
  • IPCC Sixth Assessment Report for SSP scenarios.

Main Results

• The System Dynamics model demonstrated high fidelity in capturing hydrological-human interactions, with a 97% correlation between simulated and observed groundwater levels and an estimation error below 2.5%.
• CMIP6 scenarios project intensifying aridity in the Qazvin Plain, with an overall decrease in minimum annual precipitation and an increase in mean annual temperature across all scenarios.
• Under current water-use patterns, groundwater storage is projected to decline by 24.5% (SSP126), 25.4% (SSP245), and 27.6% (SSP585) by 2041.
• Integrating demand-side management with low-water-demand cropping patterns (CPS-LW) can stabilize the aquifer and boost agricultural value added by 7.4%.
• A 48% reduction in current groundwater withdrawals (equivalent to 721 million m³ from 1502 million m³) is essential to reach the sustainable threshold of 781 million m³ by 2041.
• Achieving sustainable groundwater extraction requires combining multiple strategies, including the expansion of modern irrigation systems, adoption of water-saving cropping systems, and implementation of low-water-demand cropping patterns.
• Precipitation projections exhibit substantially greater uncertainty than temperature projections across all climate scenarios.

Contributions

• Developed a regionally specific, integrated methodological framework that links hydrological efficiency, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem resilience under climatic uncertainty.
• Provided a system-oriented and holistic approach that integrates environmental, technical, and socioeconomic dimensions to ensure long-term water and food sustainability.
• Bridged the gap between theoretical scenario analysis and practical water management by enabling the simulation and evaluation of complex interactions and alternative strategies prior to real-world implementation.
• Quantified the impact of specific adaptation strategies (e.g., cropping pattern optimization, irrigation system development) on aquifer stability and agricultural economic outcomes under various CMIP6 climate scenarios.

Funding

• This research received no external funding.
• The work of H.H. and M.N was supported by a subsidy from the Polish Ministry of Education and Science for the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences.

Citation

@article{Nazari2026System,
  author = {Nazari, Bijan and Kanani, Elahe and Kazemi, Arezoo and Hamidifar, Hossein and Nones, Michael},
  title = {A System Dynamics Approach to Integrating Climate Resilience and Water Productivity to Attain Water Resource Sustainability},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18030320},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18030320}
}