Yu et al. (2026) Future Climate Change Increases Streamflow and Risks of Hydrological Hazards in the Pearl River Basin

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-06
• Authors: Haoyuan Yu, Qichun Yang, Liuqian Yu, X. Y. Li, Minyang Li, Yingxian Yang
• DOI: 10.3390/w18030436

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study projects future runoff in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, revealing a significant increase in overall runoff, heightened flood risks during wet seasons, and potential drought risks in specific sub-basins during dry seasons, necessitating adaptive water resource management.

Objective

• To project future runoff of the densely-populated Pearl River Basin (PRB) under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios by combining the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and CMIP6 climate projections.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pearl River Basin (PRB), including the East River Sub-basin.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections for 2061–2100, compared to 2021–2060, with runoff change rates expressed per year.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), CMIP6 climate projections.
• Data sources: CMIP6 climate projections (as input for the SWAT model).

Main Results

• Climate change is projected to significantly increase the overall runoff of the Pearl River Basin (PRB).
• Runoff changing rates are projected as: 0.21 mm/month/year (SSP126), 0.20 mm/month/year (SSP245), 0.11 mm/month/year (SSP370), and 0.17 mm/month/year (SSP585).
• Future runoff exhibits strong seasonal and spatial variability across the basin.
• Higher flood risks are anticipated during the wet season under all SSP scenarios, driven by an approximate 15% increase in runoff during the wettest month between 2061–2100 compared to 2021–2060.
• Drought risks may escalate in the East River Sub-basin during the dry season under high-emission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585), with an approximate 20% reduction in runoff during the driest month between 2061–2100 compared to 2021–2060.
• The highest-emission scenario (SSP585) is projected to lead to the most drastic hydrological changes, including increased risks of both flooding and drought across different parts of the PRB.

Contributions

• Provides quantitative projections of future runoff changes and associated hydrological risks (floods and droughts) for the densely-populated Pearl River Basin under CMIP6-based SSP scenarios.
• Highlights the intensified water cycling and increased hydrological risks in the PRB under a changing climate.
• Emphasizes the necessity for future water resource management to integrate potential climate change impacts to effectively mitigate flood and drought risks.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yu2026Future,
  author = {Yu, Haoyuan and Yang, Qichun and Yu, Liuqian and Li, X. Y. and Li, Minyang and Yang, Yingxian},
  title = {Future Climate Change Increases Streamflow and Risks of Hydrological Hazards in the Pearl River Basin},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18030436},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18030436}
}