Li et al. (2026) Global Agricultural Drought Crisis: Synergistic Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities and Their Feedback Mechanisms

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-20
• Authors: Na Li, Sien Li, Bing Zhao, Xiangning Yuan, J. L. Zhu
• DOI: 10.3390/w18060732

Research Groups

• Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering Planning & Design, MARA, Beijing 100125, China

Short Summary

This review synthesizes the synergistic impacts of climate change and human activities on global agricultural drought, revealing how their interactions form amplifying feedback loops that intensify drought frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent, leading to ecological degradation, crop yield loss, and socioeconomic inequality. It proposes a three-dimensional framework integrating mitigation, adaptation, and collaborative governance to address this escalating crisis.

Objective

• To systematically sort out the synergistic driving pathways of climate change and human activities on agricultural drought.
• To analyze the multi-dimensional impacts of drought on agricultural production, food security, and ecosystems.
• To reveal the feedback loop mechanisms between various elements.
• To provide theoretical support and practical reference for formulating scientific and effective drought-resistant strategies and constructing climate-smart agricultural systems worldwide.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with specific regional analyses including the Sahel, Mediterranean, South Asia, East Asia, China, North America, Europe, Amazon rainforest, and karst basins.
• Temporal Scale: Covers historical trends (e.g., since 1880, 1950, 1970s, 2000-2022, 1901-2018), current conditions, and future projections (e.g., by 2050, under 1.5 °C and 3 °C warming scenarios).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Synthesis of findings from various models including macro-scale hydrological models (e.g., VIC - Variable Infiltration Capacity), drought indicators (e.g., SWDI - Soil Water Deficit Index, SPEI/SPI), and climate models (e.g., CMIP5 projections). Machine learning is mentioned for future prediction systems.
• Data sources: WMO assessments, EM-DAT disaster statistics, UNCCD reports, satellite observational data (e.g., GRACE), station observations, historical records, experimental data, and climate attribution analyses.

Main Results

• Global agricultural drought has intensified significantly, with a 29% increase in event frequency since 2000 compared to the previous two decades, and 82% of drought-related losses in developing countries occurring in agriculture.
• Climate change, through increased atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), altered precipitation patterns, and enhanced extreme climate modes (e.g., ENSO, AMO), is a fundamental driver, with anthropogenic warming contributing 40-60% to AED in core drought hotspots.
• Human activities, including land use/cover change (e.g., deforestation, overgrazing), overexploitation of groundwater (e.g., 17.7 ± 4.5 km³ per year depletion in northwestern India), intensive agricultural practices, and pollutant emissions, directly amplify drought risks.
• Synergistic interactions between climate change and human activities form positive feedback loops (ecology–agriculture and climate–agriculture), leading to ecosystem degradation, reduced crop yields (e.g., 15-20% photosynthetic rate decline in C3 crops, 30-40% increased yield loss under CO₂ synergy), and exacerbated socioeconomic inequality.
• Agricultural drought intensity has increased, with average surface soil moisture deficit depth rising by 15-25% globally after 1970. Duration has prolonged from 3-6 months in the 20th century to 6-12 months in the 21st century, with some extreme events lasting over 2 years. Frequency has shortened from 5-10 years to 3-5 years globally.
• A three-dimensional response framework is proposed, integrating technological innovation (e.g., water-saving irrigation, drought-resistant varieties, early warning), ecological protection (e.g., forest restoration, sustainable land management), and collaborative governance (e.g., policy, cross-regional coordination, economic incentives).

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive synthesis of the synergistic driving mechanisms, multi-dimensional impacts, and complex feedback loops of global agricultural drought under the combined influence of climate change and human activities.
• Highlights the critical role of interactive amplification effects in escalating the drought crisis beyond single-driver impacts.
• Proposes a structured, three-dimensional framework (mitigation–adaptation–collaborative governance) for developing scientific and effective drought-resistant strategies and climate-smart agricultural systems.
• Identifies key unresolved issues and future research priorities, including compound-event attribution, regional technology transferability, cross-border governance, and capacity building in vulnerable regions.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (52379052)
• Central Government Guidance Fund for Local Science and Technology Development Projects (23ZYQH0298)

Citation

@article{Li2026Global,
  author = {Li, Na and Li, Sien and Zhao, Bing and Yuan, Xiangning and Zhu, J. L.},
  title = {Global Agricultural Drought Crisis: Synergistic Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities and Their Feedback Mechanisms},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18060732},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18060732}
}