Zou et al. (2026) Temporal and Spatial Changes of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Jilin Province During 1960–2019 and Future Projections Under CMIP6 Scenarios

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-30
• Authors: Yu Zou, Yumeng Jiang, Chengbin Yang, Ri Jin, Weihong Zhu, Wanling Xu
• DOI: 10.3390/w18070820

Research Groups

[Information not explicitly provided in the paper text.]

Short Summary

This study investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics and future trends of extreme precipitation in Jilin Province, China, finding that from 1960-2019, it exhibited increased frequency and total amount but decreased intensity, with future projections (2025-2100) indicating scenario-dependent intensification, particularly under SSP5-8.5, reversing the past intensity trend.

Objective

• To examine the spatiotemporal distribution and future forecasts of extreme precipitation in Jilin Province, China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Jilin Province, China, utilizing data from 31 meteorological stations.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Historical analysis: 1960–2019 (60 years)
  • Future projections: 2025–2100 (76 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Three CMIP6 models: CanESM5, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, FGOALS-g3.
• Data sources:
  • Daily meteorological data from 31 stations (1960–2019).
  • CMIP6 model outputs under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
  • Eleven extreme precipitation indices as specified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
  • Analytical methods included linear regression, Mann–Kendall test, wavelet analysis, and inverse distance weighting interpolation.

Main Results

• From 1960 to 2019, extreme precipitation in Jilin Province demonstrated traits of "increased frequency and total amount, decreased intensity".
• Key historical trends included a significant decline in Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) of −2.184 days per decade (p < 0.001), a notable increase in Annual Total Wet-Day Precipitation (PRCPTOT) of 1.493 mm per decade (p < 0.05), and a significant reduction in Simple Daily Intensity Index (SD II) of −0.016 mm per day per decade (p < 0.01).
• Most extreme precipitation indicators exhibited a predominant cycle of 30 to 50 years.
• A significant northwest-to-southeast gradient characterized most indicators, with PRCPTOT varying from 327.5 mm in Baicheng to 824.3 mm in Tonghua.
• Future projections (2025–2100) suggested scenario-dependent intensification. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, all three models forecast substantial increases in precipitation amount indices (PRCPTOT: 2.071–2.457 mm per decade) and SD II (0.010–0.013 mm per day per decade), reversing the past downward trend in intensity.
• The anticipated future alterations also exhibited a northwest-to-southeast gradient, with PRCPTOT increases projected to be above 230 mm in the central and southeastern regions.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and future trends of extreme precipitation in Jilin Province, addressing a previously identified research gap.
• Offers a scientific basis for developing effective flood management strategies and climate change adaptation plans for Jilin Province and similar temperate monsoon regions.
• Integrates historical station data with multiple CMIP6 model projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for robust future climate change assessments.

Funding

[Information not explicitly provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Zou2026Temporal,
  author = {Zou, Yu and Jiang, Yumeng and Yang, Chengbin and Jin, Ri and Zhu, Weihong and Xu, Wanling},
  title = {Temporal and Spatial Changes of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Jilin Province During 1960–2019 and Future Projections Under CMIP6 Scenarios},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18070820},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18070820}
}