Yan et al. (2026) Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Conditions in the Henan Section of the Yellow River Based on the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-05-22
• Authors: Changwei Yan, Wenzhao Qiao, Ruyi Huang, Jie Tao, Qiting Zuo, Zhiqiang Zhang
• DOI: 10.3390/w18111252

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes historical drought and pluvial trends in the Henan section of the Yellow River (1970–2014) and projects future conditions up to 2100 using CMIP6 models. The findings reveal a historical drying trend and suggest that future hydroclimatic risks will vary by SSP scenario, generally becoming more severe and persistent.

Objective

• To evaluate the historical evolution and project the future trends of drought and wet conditions in the Henan section of the Yellow River.
• To assess the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating regional precipitation and temperature.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Henan section of the Yellow River.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1970–2014) and future projection period (2015–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and run theory.
• Data sources: Precipitation and temperature data (via CMIP6 models) across four SSP-RCP scenarios.

Main Results

• Historical Trend: A significant drying trend was observed from 1970 to 2014, with a rate of 0.15 per decade.
• Future Projections:
  • SSP1-2.6: Projected wetting tendency (increasing rate of 0.02 per decade).
  • Other scenarios: Consistent drying trends with rates of −0.11, −0.15, and −0.23 per decade.
• Periodicity: Hydroclimatic oscillations exhibit a pronounced periodicity of approximately 20–30 years.
• Event Characteristics: In the mid-to-late 21st century, drought and wetness events are projected to decrease in frequency but increase in duration and severity.
• Risk Assessment: The SSP3-7.0 scenario presents the highest overall risk and widest spatial extent, while SSP2-4.5 shows the lowest and most balanced risk.

Contributions

The study provides a detailed regional assessment of future hydroclimatic risks in the Henan section of the Yellow River by integrating CMIP6 models with SPEI and run theory, offering critical data for disaster mitigation and water resource management under different radiative forcing scenarios.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yan2026Projected,
  author = {Yan, Changwei and Qiao, Wenzhao and Huang, Ruyi and Tao, Jie and Zuo, Qiting and Zhang, Zhiqiang},
  title = {Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Conditions in the Henan Section of the Yellow River Based on the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18111252},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18111252}
}