Chu et al. (2026) Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Compound Droughts in Karst Regions of Southwest China: A Copula-Based Study

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-05-25
• Authors: Miaojia Chu, Huarong Zhao, Zikang Ren, J Zhang
• DOI: 10.3390/w18111275

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

This study analyzes the spatial-temporal distribution and driving factors of different drought types in China's Southwest Karst Area (1979–2023) using Copula-based indices and random forest analysis.

Objective

• To explore the distribution patterns (intensity, frequency, severity, and duration) and the primary driving factors of general, atmospheric, and composite droughts in the Southwest Karst Area (SKA).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southwest Karst Area (SKA), China (including specific regions such as Guangxi and the western Sichuan Plateau).
• Temporal Scale: 1979–2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Copula theory (to construct SDTI, SDHTI, and SASI indices), Run theory, Mann–Kendall test, and Random Forest analysis.
• Data sources: Meteorological data including precipitation, temperature, humidity, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture.

Main Results

• Regional Distribution: Droughts in karst-developed regions are generally more severe. Compound droughts are most severe on the western Sichuan Plateau, whereas atmospheric droughts are more pronounced in Guangxi.
• Karst vs. Non-Karst: Droughts in karst areas are characterized by high frequency and intensity but shorter duration and lower severity; non-karst areas exhibit the opposite pattern.
• Trends: An overall worsening trend was observed, with a maximum increase of 0.59, although this trend is not statistically significant.
• Driving Factors (Random Forest):
  • SDTI: Primarily driven by temperature (2.60).
  • SDHTI: Primarily driven by relative humidity (3.21) and temperature (2.42).
  • SASI: Primarily driven by soil moisture (2.08) and temperature (1.48).

Contributions

• Provides a nuanced understanding of how unique hydrogeological karst conditions influence drought characteristics, offering critical data to optimize agricultural management and water resource allocation in the SKA.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Chu2026Spatial,
  author = {Chu, Miaojia and Zhao, Huarong and Ren, Zikang and Zhang, J},
  title = {Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Compound Droughts in Karst Regions of Southwest China: A Copula-Based Study},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18111275},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18111275}
}