Mohamed et al. (2026) Climate Change and Climatic Water Balance in Brandenburg (Germany): Seasonal Drying and Hydro-Climatic Stress Under Multi-Model Climate Projections to 2100

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-17
• Authors: Mohamed Ali Mohamed, Rainer Hentschel, Winfried Riek
• DOI: 10.3390/w18141737

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

This study evaluates projected changes in climatic water balance and hydro-climatic stress in Brandenburg, Germany, concluding that rising temperatures and evaporative demand will lead to a robust increase in growing-season drying by 2100.

Objective

• To assess projected changes in climatic water balance (CWB), hydro-climatic stress indicators, and their relationship with root-zone soil moisture under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Brandenburg, Germany
• Temporal Scale: 2006–2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Four regional climate model realizations (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)
• Data sources: Regional climate model outputs for air temperature (tas), precipitation (pr), and reference evapotranspiration (ET0)

Main Results

• Temperature: Substantial warming is projected, exceeding +2 °C under the RCP8.5 scenario by the late century.
• Water Balance: While annual precipitation remains stable, a decrease in vegetation-period precipitation and an increase in evaporative demand lead to a more negative growing-season CWB, with projected changes ranging from −22 mm to −139 mm.
• Stress Indicators: Hydro-climatic indicators consistently show an increase in seasonal water limitation and drought risk.
• Soil Moisture Correlation: A significant positive relationship exists between CWB and root-zone soil moisture (p < 0.001), although the explanatory power is low (R² < 0.14).

Contributions

• Demonstrates a robust signal of increasing growing-season drying across multiple model realizations and highlights the critical role of seasonal hydro-climatic indicators in assessing future ecosystem water availability and drought risk.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Mohamed2026Climate,
  author = {Mohamed, Mohamed Ali and Hentschel, Rainer and Riek, Winfried},
  title = {Climate Change and Climatic Water Balance in Brandenburg (Germany): Seasonal Drying and Hydro-Climatic Stress Under Multi-Model Climate Projections to 2100},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18141737},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18141737}
}