Mirzaei et al. (2026) Quantifying Future Drought Intensity and Frequency: A Multi-Scenario Study Using SPI, PDSI, and LPDF in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the US

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-20
• Authors: Majid Mirzaei, Adel Shirmohammadi, Paul T. Leisnham, Puneet Srivastava
• DOI: 10.3390/w18162042

Research Groups

[Not specified]

Short Summary

This study evaluates future drought conditions in Maryland, USA, using meteorological and hydrological indices, finding that rising temperatures may offset increased precipitation to intensify hydrological drought.

Objective

• To assess and compare near-term (2021–2060) and late-term (2061–2100) drought conditions in Maryland under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using multiple drought indices.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Maryland, Mid-Atlantic region, United States.
• Temporal Scale: 2021–2100 (divided into two periods: 2021–2060 and 2061–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 7 General Circulation Models (GCMs); Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using gamma distribution; simplified Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) based on a standardized Z-index; Low Precipitation Duration–Frequency Analysis (LPDF) using Extreme Value Type I distribution.
• Data sources: Precipitation and temperature projections from GCMs across three SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585).

Main Results

• SPI: General trend toward increased extreme wet conditions, most prominent under the high-emission scenario (SSP585) between 2061 and 2100.
• PDSI: Indicated a shift toward drier conditions under SSP126 and SSP245, suggesting that temperature increases offset the benefits of increased precipitation.
• LPDF: Observed a reduced frequency of prolonged low-precipitation events under SSP585 compared to SSP126 and SSP245.
• Synthesis: The discrepancy between SPI (wetting trend) and PDSI (drying trend) highlights that increased precipitation does not necessarily imply drought resilience due to rising temperature-driven evaporative demand.

Contributions

• The study demonstrates the critical importance of integrating both precipitation and temperature variables in drought assessments, as relying solely on meteorological indices (like SPI) may mask future hydrological and agricultural drought stress.

Funding

[Not specified]

Citation

@article{Mirzaei2026Quantifying,
  author = {Mirzaei, Majid and Shirmohammadi, Adel and Leisnham, Paul T. and Srivastava, Puneet},
  title = {Quantifying Future Drought Intensity and Frequency: A Multi-Scenario Study Using SPI, PDSI, and LPDF in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the US},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18162042},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18162042}
}