Zaifoglu (2026) Multidimensional Assessment of Hydroclimatic Changes in Northern Cyprus

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-21
• Authors: Hasan Zaifoglu
• DOI: 10.3390/w18162050

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study performs a multidimensional assessment of hydroclimatic trends in Northern Cyprus, revealing spatial heterogeneity in precipitation (wetting in mountainous/western areas and drying in eastern coasts) and widespread warming in maximum temperatures.

Objective

• To evaluate hydroclimatic changes in Northern Cyprus by analyzing monotonic trends, abrupt shifts, distribution-dependent changes, and the interaction between mean and variability in precipitation and temperature.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Northern Cyprus, utilizing 27 precipitation and 12 temperature stations).
• Temporal Scale: Precipitation records spanning 35–46 years; temperature records spanning 21–30 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK), Pettitt (PT), Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and Structural Trend and Variability Identification (STVI).
• Data sources: Observational records from local precipitation and temperature stations.

Main Results

• Precipitation Trends: Significant spatial heterogeneity and seasonal asymmetry; wetting tendencies observed in the Kyrenia mountainous region and western coast, while drying tendencies occurred in eastern coastal stations, particularly during spring.
• Precipitation Distribution: ITA results indicate that medium and high precipitation values generally increased, whereas low precipitation values decreased or showed mixed responses.
• Temperature Trends: Widespread warming in monthly mean daily maximum temperature ($\text{T}{\text{max}}$), while warming in daily minimum temperature ($\text{T}{\text{min}}$) was more localized and season-dependent.
• Structural Dynamics: STVI analysis reveals that precipitation changes are driven by a restructuring of both mean and variability, whereas temperature changes are primarily mean-driven.

Contributions

• Advances the understanding of hydroclimatic evolution in semi-arid Mediterranean regions by integrating multiple trend analysis methods to capture complexities (such as variability restructuring) that conventional trend analyses often overlook.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zaifoglu2026Multidimensional,
  author = {Zaifoglu, Hasan},
  title = {Multidimensional Assessment of Hydroclimatic Changes in Northern Cyprus},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18162050},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18162050}
}