Tabunshchik et al. (2026) Assessment of Long-Term Dynamics and Trend Extrapolation of Vegetation-Cover Changes in the River Basins of the Southwestern Caspian Region Using NDVI, EVI, and NDMI Data Derived from MODIS Satellites

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-20
• Authors: Vladimir Tabunshchik, Aleksandra Nikiforova, Roman P. Gorbunov, Tatiana Yu. Gorbunova, Ibragim Kerimov, Zulfira Gagayeva
• DOI: 10.3390/w18182341

Research Groups

• Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)
• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Short Summary

This study assesses long-term dynamics and forecasts vegetation-cover changes in nine river basins of the southwestern Caspian region using remote sensing data. Statistically significant positive trends in NDVI and EVI indicate increasing green phytomass across the territory.

Objective

• Investigate the long-term dynamics of vegetation cover in small and medium-sized rivers of the southwestern Caspian region

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Basin-wide approach, covering nine river basins
• Temporal Scale: 2001–2024 (24 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical analysis using Theil-Sen trends with Mann-Kendall testing and Hurst exponent-based persistence forecasts
• Data sources: MODIS data (Google Earth Engine, MOD09A1 and MOD13Q1) for NDVI, EVI, and NDMI

Main Results

• Statistically significant positive trends in NDVI and EVI across the entire territory, indicating increasing green phytomass
• Significant negative trend in NDMI, suggesting declining moisture availability
• Heterogeneous spatial distribution of indices across the study area

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive predictive analysis of vegetation-cover changes at a basin-wide scale for the first time in the region
• The results highlight the importance of considering long-term dynamics and forecasting vegetation cover to inform conservation efforts

Funding

• Russian Science Foundation (RSF) grant #20-14-00031
• Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, state assignment #075-15-2019-1354

Citation

@article{Tabunshchik2026Assessment,
  author = {Tabunshchik, Vladimir and Nikiforova, Aleksandra and Gorbunov, Roman P. and Gorbunova, Tatiana Yu. and Kerimov, Ibragim and Gagayeva, Zulfira},
  title = {Assessment of Long-Term Dynamics and Trend Extrapolation of Vegetation-Cover Changes in the River Basins of the Southwestern Caspian Region Using NDVI, EVI, and NDMI Data Derived from MODIS Satellites},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18182341},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18182341}
}