Yuan et al. (2026) Nonlinear Associations and Candidate Statistical Thresholds Between Ecosystem Services and Groundwater Storage Anomalies: An Analysis Using CatBoost–SHAP

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-20
• Authors: Jing Yuan, Lifang Zhang, Kun Zhang, Hongyong Cao, Diziba Abudoureheman
• DOI: 10.3390/w18182344

Research Groups

• Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Department of Ecology, University of Tarim

Short Summary

This study analyzed the relationship between ecological restoration and groundwater stress in arid regions using a proxy for groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) and ecosystem services index (ESI). The results show that improved ESI does not necessarily indicate groundwater recovery.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of ecological restoration on groundwater stress in arid regions

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nine headwater basins of the Tarim River Basin, China
• Temporal Scale: 2003–2025 (GWSA proxy) and 2000–2025 (ESI)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: GRACE/GLDAS-derived GWSA proxy, CatBoost models for joint-trend zoning and SHAP analysis
• Data sources: Satellite data (GRACE), observation data (groundwater-level anomalies), reanalysis data (GLDAS)

Main Results

• The GWSA proxy declined by −0.31 mm month−1, with negative anomalies intensifying after 2020 and a northwest-decrease/southeast-increase pattern.
• Comparisons with groundwater-level anomalies showed moderate agreement at Aksu but weak, nonsignificant agreement at Cele.
• Carbon storage, habitat quality, net primary productivity, and ESI increased, whereas sand retention declined.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between ecological restoration and groundwater stress in arid regions, demonstrating that improved ecosystem services do not necessarily indicate groundwater recovery.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51879223)
• Chinese Academy of Sciences' Strategic Pioneer Program (Grant No. XDA19040201)

Citation

@article{Yuan2026Nonlinear,
  author = {Yuan, Jing and Zhang, Lifang and Zhang, Kun and Cao, Hongyong and Abudoureheman, Diziba},
  title = {Nonlinear Associations and Candidate Statistical Thresholds Between Ecosystem Services and Groundwater Storage Anomalies: An Analysis Using CatBoost–SHAP},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18182344},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18182344}
}