Andrade et al. (2026) Assessing Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Iberian Peninsula Under Future Emission Scenarios

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-24
• Authors: Cristina Maria Mendes Andrade, André Fonseca, António Fernandes, Christoph Menz, João A. Santos
• DOI: 10.3390/w18192381

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

This study evaluates future hydroclimatic extremes in the Iberian Peninsula using CMIP6 projections, finding a significant intensification of combined hydroclimatic stress—characterized by prolonged dry spells and concentrated extreme precipitation—particularly in southern river basins under high-emission scenarios.

Objective

• To evaluate future changes in precipitation and precipitation-based extremes (CDD, CDDn, and R95pTOT) and assess combined hydroclimatic stress at both grid-cell and watershed scales across the Iberian Peninsula.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Iberian Peninsula (IP), with specific analysis of the Guadalquivir, Guadiana, Tagus, Douro, and Ebro river basins.
• Temporal Scale: Three future periods: 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CHELSA-ISIMIP3b CMIP6 ensemble.
• Data sources: CMIP6 ensemble data under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5).

Main Results

• Precipitation Decline: Under SSP5–8.5, precipitation is projected to decrease by more than 30% by 2100 in southern and interior basins.
• Dry Spell Intensification: Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) are projected to exceed 90 days per year in southern Iberia; the number of dry spells (CDDn) is expected to increase primarily in eastern and northeastern regions.
• Precipitation Concentration: R95pTOT projections indicate an increase in precipitation concentration, especially in southeastern and Mediterranean regions.
• Combined Hydroclimatic Stress: Under SSP5–8.5 (2081–2100), the "Very High" stress class covers approximately 97% of the Guadalquivir, 95% of the Guadiana, and 65% of the Tagus basins. The Douro basin shows moderate intensification, while the Ebro basin remains largely below the "Very High" class (19% reaching "High" stress).

Contributions

• The study establishes a hydroclimatic stress framework that integrates prolonged drought and extreme precipitation concentration, identifying specific river basins most vulnerable to these coinciding extremes to inform basin-scale water-resource planning and climate adaptation.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Andrade2026Assessing,
  author = {Andrade, Cristina Maria Mendes and Fonseca, André and Fernandes, António and Menz, Christoph and Santos, João A.},
  title = {Assessing Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Iberian Peninsula Under Future Emission Scenarios},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18192381},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18192381}
}