Rossi et al. (2026) Modeling the Water–Food Composite Index in a Brazilian Peri-Urban Watershed: An Agent-Based Simulation Under Climate Change Scenarios

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-28
• Authors: Thiago Joel Angrizanes Rossi, Murilo Mazzotti Silvestrini, Cecília Stanzani Klapka, Flávia Mori Sarti
• DOI: 10.3390/w18192406

Research Groups

• Department of Environmental Engineering, University of São Paulo (USP)
• Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA)
• Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL)
• MapBiomas Institute
• IPCC AR6 Climate Scenario Team

Short Summary

This study develops an agent-based model to analyze the water-food nexus in the Alto Tietê basin, Brazil, under different governance regimes and climate scenarios. The main finding is that integrated governance can reduce between-replicate variance and act as a source of predictability under climate stress.

Objective

• Investigate the effects of different governance regimes on the water-food nexus in peri-urban areas of Brazil

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Alto Tietê basin, São Paulo state, Brazil (approx. 10,000 km²)
• Temporal Scale: 1985–2024, with a focus on climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Agent-based model (ABM) integrating open data from ANA, ANEEL, MapBiomas, and IPCC AR6 climate scenarios
• Data sources:
  • Water usage data from ANA
  • Energy production data from ANEEL
  • Land-use data from MapBiomas
  • Climate scenario data from IPCC AR6

Main Results

• The model reproduces the broad land-cover trajectory across 1985–2024, but underrepresents late period urbanization.
• Three interacting dynamics emerge: (i) a solar-pumping rebound; (ii) a land-use displacement cascade; and (iii) a governance-conditional trade-off.
• Integrated governance preserves the water pillar by activating restrictions that reduce delivered irrigation, while holding the food pillar at the expense of the water pillar.

Contributions

• This study provides original insights into the effects of different governance regimes on the water-food nexus in peri-urban areas of Brazil, filling a gap in existing literature regarding agent-based models and Latin American contexts.
• The findings highlight the importance of integrated governance in reducing between-replicate variance and acting as a source of predictability under climate stress.

Funding

• This research was funded by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) through grant number 2019/11371-6.

Citation

@article{Rossi2026Modeling,
  author = {Rossi, Thiago Joel Angrizanes and Silvestrini, Murilo Mazzotti and Klapka, Cecília Stanzani and Sarti, Flávia Mori},
  title = {Modeling the Water–Food Composite Index in a Brazilian Peri-Urban Watershed: An Agent-Based Simulation Under Climate Change Scenarios},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18192406},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18192406}
}