BAYRAM et al. (2026) Tokat Ovası ve Yakın Çevresinde İklim Değişikliği Bağlamında Kuraklık Analizi

Identification

• Journal: Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-14
• Authors: İsmail BAYRAM, Halil İbrahim Zeybek
• DOI: 10.34248/bsengineering.1977622

Research Groups

• Arif Nihat Asya Girls' Anatolian Imam Hatip High School, Tokat, Türkiye
• Ondokuz Mayıs University, Faculty of Human and Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Samsun, Türkiye

Short Summary

This study evaluates past (1985–2025) and projected future (2026–2098) drought conditions in the Tokat Plain, Turkey, using the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and climate models, revealing an increasing trend in drought severity towards the end of the century despite short-term wetter conditions.

Objective

• To evaluate past (1985–2025) and project future (2026–2098) drought conditions in the Tokat Plain, focusing on agricultural drought and its potential socio-economic risks.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tokat Plain and its vicinity, Turkey, covering an area of 24,580 hectares.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Historical/Observed: 1985–2025
  • Future/Projected: 2026–2098

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 3-month and 12-month scales.
  • HadGEM2-ES Global Climate Model (GCM) for deriving regional climate data.
  • RegCM4.3 Regional Climate Model (RCM) with 20 km resolution for future projections.
  • Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emission scenario.
• Data sources:
  • Observational precipitation and temperature data from Turhal Meteorological Station (1985–2025).
  • Projection outputs from the RegCM4.3 Regional Climate Model, bias-corrected using Turhal station data.
  • Qualitative data from interviews with 17 village headmen regarding drought impacts.

Main Results

• The Tokat Plain exhibits a semi-arid continental climate with an average annual temperature of 13 °C and average annual precipitation of 409 mm (1985–2025).
• 3-month SPEI values indicate that seasonal drought conditions have significantly affected agricultural vegetation periods in the research area since 2014.
• In 2024 and 2025, drought was observed to extend over a large portion of the year, with extreme drought conditions occurring in spring and summer of 2024.
• 12-month SPEI values show a clear increasing drought trend in the study area during the 2014–2025 period, with 2024 being the driest year in the last 40 years.
• Climate projections (RCP4.5 scenario) suggest a short-term trend towards more humid conditions in certain periods (e.g., 2026–2032, 2044–2046, 2072–2076).
• However, towards the end of the century (from the 2050s onwards), drought events are projected to become more prolonged and severe.
• Future drought conditions are anticipated to be influenced by increased evaporation intensity and irregularities in precipitation regimes, even if total precipitation does not significantly decrease.
• Farmers in the region have been forced to implement drought mitigation measures, such as early irrigation, which were not previously necessary.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive and integrated drought analysis for the Tokat Plain, combining historical observations with regional climate model projections using the SPEI.
• Offers critical future drought predictions for an agriculturally important region with limited irrigation infrastructure, highlighting potential socio-economic vulnerabilities.
• Emphasizes the projected increase in severity and duration of drought events towards the end of the 21st century, contributing to regional climate change impact assessments.
• Underscores the need for improved water management and adaptation strategies, such as modernizing irrigation systems and promoting less water-intensive crops, to build climate resilience in rural communities.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{BAYRAM2026Tokat,
  author = {BAYRAM, İsmail and Zeybek, Halil İbrahim},
  title = {Tokat Ovası ve Yakın Çevresinde İklim Değişikliği Bağlamında Kuraklık Analizi},
  journal = {Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.34248/bsengineering.1977622},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1977622}
}