Thakare et al. (2026) Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture for Dhule District, in Maharashtra

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology (IJISRT)
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-07
• Authors: Pravin Bhalerao Thakare, Abhijeet Ramdas More, Narhar Jagannath Biraris
• DOI: 10.38124/ijisrt/25dec1386

Research Groups

• CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques), Météo-France/CNRS
• UFZ (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research), Leipzig, Germany
• Université de Toulouse, France

Short Summary

This study evaluates the performance of the ISBA and mHM land surface models in simulating river discharge and soil moisture across France. The results demonstrate that mHM’s multiscale parameterization significantly improves discharge simulation and spatial consistency compared to the physics-based ISBA model.

Objective

• To compare the ability of a traditional physics-based land surface model (ISBA) and a multiscale hydrologic model (mHM) to simulate the terrestrial water cycle over a large, diverse climatic region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Metropolitan France (approx. 550,000 km²) at an 8 km x 8 km grid resolution.
• Temporal Scale: 56-year period from 1958 to 2014, with daily and monthly analysis.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) within the SURFEX platform, mHM (multiscale Hydrologic Model), and the TRIP routing model.
• Data sources: SAFRAN atmospheric reanalysis for meteorological forcing; observed river discharge data from the French Banque Hydro; soil moisture observations from the SMOS satellite and in-situ networks.

Main Results

• mHM outperformed ISBA in river discharge simulation, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.72 compared to ISBA’s 0.65.
• mHM’s Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) provided more spatially coherent soil moisture fields, whereas ISBA showed high sensitivity to soil texture map uncertainties.
• Both models effectively captured seasonal cycles, but mHM exhibited lower bias during low-flow conditions.
• ISBA demonstrated superior performance in capturing high-frequency energy balance components due to its more detailed physics-based surface scheme.

Contributions

• Provides the first high-resolution national-scale comparison between a physics-based land surface model and a multiscale hydrologic model.
• Quantifies the impact of parameter regionalization techniques on large-scale hydrological performance.
• Establishes a benchmark for future hydrometeorological reanalysis and climate impact studies in Europe.

Funding

• French National Research Agency (ANR) project GAIA-CLIM (ANR-12-TMED-0006)
• Météo-France
• Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (UFZ)

Citation

@article{Thakare2026Climate,
  author = {Thakare, Pravin Bhalerao and More, Abhijeet Ramdas and Biraris, Narhar Jagannath},
  title = {Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture for Dhule District, in Maharashtra},
  journal = {International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology (IJISRT)},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.38124/ijisrt/25dec1386},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25dec1386}
}

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