Pfleiderer et al. (2026) Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-15
• Authors: Peter Pfleiderer, Anna Merrifield, István Dunkl, Homer Durand, Enora Cariou, Julien Cattiaux, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sebastian Sippel
• DOI: 10.3929/ethz-c-000793343

Research Groups

Information not provided in the paper text.

Short Summary

This study systematically tests statistical and machine learning methods to quantify the contribution of atmospheric circulation changes to summer temperature trends across the northern mid-latitudes. It finds that circulation changes have made a substantial and regionally varying contribution to summer warming, accounting for up to half of the observed summer warming in Europe between 1979 and 2023.

Objective

• To systematically test statistical and machine learning methods that decompose temperature signals into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions against climate model simulations, in order to robustly quantify the contribution of atmospheric circulation changes to summer temperature trends over multiple decades.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern mid-latitudes, including Europe, Western North America, Central Siberia, Mongolia, Central China, northeastern Canada, Eastern and Central North America, Eastern China, and Central Asia.
• Temporal Scale: Multiple decades, specifically between 1979 and 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate model simulations, including unforced simulations with circulation nudged to match a forced simulation that incorporates anthropogenic emissions and land-use change.
• Data sources: Climate model simulations (forced and nudged) are used as the basis for applying and testing decomposition methods.

Main Results

• Most decomposition methods accurately identify the sign of circulation-induced changes in temperature but consistently underestimate their magnitude.
• Circulation changes have made a substantial contribution to summer temperature trends across the northern mid-latitudes.
• In Europe, circulation trends are estimated to have contributed up to 50% of the observed summer warming between 1979 and 2023.
• Circulation trends have contributed to warmer summer temperatures over Western North America, Central Siberia, Mongolia, Central China, and northeastern Canada.
• Conversely, circulation changes have led to cooler summer temperatures over Eastern and Central North America, Eastern China, and Central Asia.
• The study confirms a circumglobal mid-latitude pattern of considerable, yet contrasting, contributions of circulation changes to summer temperature trends.

Contributions

• Provides a systematic evaluation of statistical and machine learning methods for decomposing temperature signals into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions using climate model simulations.
• Quantifies the substantial and regionally diverse contribution of atmospheric circulation changes to summer temperature trends across the northern mid-latitudes over several decades.
• Offers robust evidence, based on multiple methods, for a circumglobal mid-latitude pattern of circulation-induced temperature changes.

Funding

Information not provided in the paper text.

Citation

@article{Pfleiderer2026Considerable,
  author = {Pfleiderer, Peter and Merrifield, Anna and Dunkl, István and Durand, Homer and Cariou, Enora and Cattiaux, Julien and Camps-Valls, Gustau and Sippel, Sebastian},
  title = {Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes},
  journal = {Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3929/ethz-c-000793343},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000793343}
}