Egli et al. (2026) Detecting anthropogenically induced changes in extreme and seasonal evapotranspiration observations

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-23
• Authors: Marius Egli, Sebastian Sippel, Reto Knutti, Vincent Humphrey
• DOI: 10.3929/ethz-c-000795319

Research Groups

[Information not provided in the given text.]

Short Summary

This study examines changes in high evapotranspiration (ET) extremes and seasonal mean ET using climate models and observational data, finding that anthropogenic climate change intensifies high ET extremes, which universally increase or show no significant change, while seasonal mean ET exhibits mixed regional trends.

Objective

• To determine whether the increase in evaporative demand, driven by rising temperature and radiation, has led to an increase in evapotranspiration (ET) in observational products, considering the constraint of limited water supply over land.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global and regional analysis.
• Temporal Scale: 1980 to 2023 (43 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate models (specific models not named).
• Data sources: Two observational data sets (specific sources not named).

Main Results

• High ET extremes are primarily driven by periods of high incoming surface radiation and elevated temperatures.
• Anthropogenic climate change robustly intensifies these high ET extreme events.
• Robust changes in both extreme and seasonal ET were detected across two observational data sets.
• From 1980 to 2023, seasonal mean ET showed mixed increases and decreases regionally.
• In contrast, extreme ET universally increased or showed no significant change across all regions.
• Regions exhibiting strong trends in extreme ET are identified as being at an increased risk of flash droughts.

Contributions

• Provides observational evidence of robust changes in both extreme and seasonal evapotranspiration under anthropogenic climate change.
• Demonstrates a universal increase or non-significant change in extreme ET globally, contrasting with mixed regional trends in seasonal mean ET.
• Links the intensification of high ET extremes directly to anthropogenic climate change.
• Highlights the increased risk of flash droughts in regions experiencing strong extreme ET trends.

Funding

[Information not provided in the given text.]

Citation

@article{Egli2026Detecting,
  author = {Egli, Marius and Sippel, Sebastian and Knutti, Reto and Humphrey, Vincent},
  title = {Detecting anthropogenically induced changes in extreme and seasonal evapotranspiration observations},
  journal = {Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3929/ethz-c-000795319},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000795319}
}