Yoloğlu et al. (2026) Estimation of Aquifer Recharge of the Semi-Arid Konya Closed Basin in Türkiye under Climate Change

Identification

• Journal: Black Sea Journal of Agriculture
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-14
• Authors: Onur Cem Yoloğlu, İrem Daloğlu Çetinkaya, Nadim Kamel Copty
• DOI: 10.47115/bsagriculture.1948524

Research Groups

• Boğaziçi University, Institute of Environmental Sciences
• Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK)

Short Summary

This study estimates the spatiotemporal recharge dynamics in the semi-arid Konya Closed Basin in Türkiye under climate change. A coupled unsaturated-saturated flow model based on MODFLOW/UZF was used to quantify the effect of irrigation efficiency improvements and crop pattern changes on recharge and the overall aquifer water budget.

Objective

• Estimate spatiotemporal recharge patterns under historical conditions and identify controlling factors.
• Quantify the effect of irrigation efficiency improvements and crop pattern changes on recharge and the overall aquifer water budget.
• Estimate recharge as a fraction of surface water application.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The Konya Closed Basin, a semi-arid endorheic basin in south-central Anatolia, Türkiye, covering approximately 50,000 km².
• Temporal Scale: Historical (2000–2022) and future climate projections to 2040 under RCP8.5.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: MODFLOW/UZF coupled unsaturated-saturated flow model.
• Data sources:
  • Precipitation and temperature data from 18 meteorological stations across the basin (1980–2022).
  • Crop cultivation areas and water requirements from Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) database and TAGEM standards, respectively.

Main Results

• The spatially distributed recharge rates are highest along the southwestern margins of the basin during winter months due to higher precipitation.
• In summer months, recharge is mostly attributed to irrigation return flows, with peak back recharge signal in July and August.
• Under enhanced irrigation efficiency scenario (S1), estimated recharge remains spread across all months with slightly lower values in summer months.
• The corn phase-out combined with enhanced efficiency scenario (S2) produces a shift in the seasonal distribution of irrigation application, resulting in reduced summer irrigation peak.

Contributions

This study provides a physically based estimation of aquifer recharge under climate change and management scenarios, highlighting the importance of accurate recharge quantification for sustainable groundwater resource governance in semi-arid basins.

Funding

• This work was supported by [project name] (funding code: [code]) from [funding agency].
• Additional funding provided by [project name] (funding code: [code]) from [funding agency].

Citation

@article{Yoloğlu2026Estimation,
  author = {Yoloğlu, Onur Cem and Çetinkaya, İrem Daloğlu and Copty, Nadim Kamel},
  title = {Estimation of Aquifer Recharge of the Semi-Arid Konya Closed Basin in Türkiye under Climate Change},
  journal = {Black Sea Journal of Agriculture},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.47115/bsagriculture.1948524},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.47115/bsagriculture.1948524}
}