Judijanto (2026) From Rainless Days to Systemic Drought Risk in Indonesia: Climate Drivers, Drought Propagation, Food–Water Vulnerability, and Adaptive Resilience

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-26
• Authors: Loso Judijanto
• DOI: 10.47363/jeesr/2026(8)316

Research Groups

• Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)
• University of Gadjah Mada (UGM)

Short Summary

This qualitative literature review synthesizes recent evidence on the evolution of meteorological dryness into agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought in Indonesia, highlighting the importance of understanding drought impacts beyond rainfall duration. The study proposes an Integrated Drought-Cascade–Resilience Framework for anticipatory drought governance.

Objective

• Investigate the societal significance of prolonged rainless periods in Indonesia by examining the interactions between meteorological dryness and agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, with a focus on Indonesia.
• Temporal Scale: Recent evidence from 2020–2026, with a contemporary interpretive context of exceptionally long consecutive rainless periods in September 2026.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: None mentioned; literature review based on peer-reviewed articles.
• Data sources: Peer-reviewed literature published between 2020–2026, including satellite precipitation, vegetation indices, soil moisture, and station observations.

Main Results

• Indonesian drought is strongly shaped by interacting ocean–atmosphere processes (El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, monsoon variability, and local climatic conditions).
• Drought impacts emerge through nonlinear propagation involving soil-moisture depletion, vegetation stress, declining surface and groundwater availability, irrigation constraints, and socioeconomic exposure.
• No single drought metric adequately captures the cascade; station observations, SPI/SPEI, satellite precipitation, vegetation indices, soil moisture, and data-driven approaches provide complementary information.
• Drought resilience depends on converting climate information into anticipatory decisions through irrigation management, farm adaptation, climate services, social protection, insurance, institutional coordination, and long-term water-system transformation.

Contributions

This article contributes to the understanding of drought impacts in Indonesia by highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear propagation and multiple indicators for drought assessment. The Integrated Drought-Cascade–Resilience Framework proposed in this study provides a novel approach to anticipatory drought governance.

Funding

• This research was supported by the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) and the University of Gadjah Mada (UGM).

Citation

@article{Judijanto2026From,
  author = {Judijanto, Loso},
  title = {From Rainless Days to Systemic Drought Risk in Indonesia: Climate Drivers, Drought Propagation, Food–Water Vulnerability, and Adaptive Resilience},
  journal = {Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.47363/jeesr/2026(8)316},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.47363/jeesr/2026(8)316}
}