Jaarsveld et al. (2026) Global hyper-resolution modeling of historical and future groundwater dynamics

Identification

• Journal: Earth System Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-07
• Authors: Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Nicole Gyakowah Otoo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jarno Verkaik, Daniel Zamrsky, Marc F. P. Bierkens
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-17-1201-2026

Research Groups

• Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Princeton laan 8a, Utrecht, the Netherlands
• Groundwater and Water Security, Deltares, Utrecht, the Netherlands
• Department of Water Resources and Ecosystems, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands

Short Summary

This study presents a global hyper-resolution model (GLOBGM v1.1) that simulates past and future groundwater dynamics at 30 arcsec (~1 km) resolution on a monthly time step. The model is used to estimate historical trends in groundwater storage and project future changes under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change and human activities on global groundwater resources.
• Develop a high-resolution global groundwater model that can provide reliable estimates of current and future groundwater volumes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec (~1 km).
• Temporal Scale: Monthly time step for simulations from 1960 to 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: GLOBGM v1.1, a global 30 arcsec, two-layer transient, MODFLOW-based groundwater flow model.
• Data sources: ISIMIP3a climate forcing, PCR-GLOBWB2 local runoff, groundwater abstraction, and recharge.

Main Results

• The study presents historical trend analysis (1960-2019) that accurately reproduces known groundwater depletion regions such as the U.S. High Plains, Arabian Peninsula, and Indo-Gangetic Plain.
• Future scenario-based simulations suggest rising water tables for most continents in the next century, with Europe being a notable exception.

Contributions

• This study provides high-resolution information to assess groundwater dynamics for the past and future, supporting improved global water resource management and climate impact assessments.
• The resulting data set offers a valuable tool for policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions about groundwater resources.

Funding

• This research was funded by [insert funding agencies or projects].

Citation

@article{Jaarsveld2026Global,
  author = {Jaarsveld, Barry van and Wanders, Niko and Otoo, Nicole Gyakowah and Sutanudjaja, Edwin H. and Verkaik, Jarno and Zamrsky, Daniel and Bierkens, Marc F. P.},
  title = {Global hyper-resolution modeling of historical and future groundwater dynamics},
  journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/esd-17-1201-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1201-2026}
}