Heselschwerdt et al. (2026) Large impact of extreme precipitation on projected blue–green water partitioning

Identification

• Journal: Earth System Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-23
• Authors: Simon P. Heselschwerdt, Thorsten Wagener, Lan Wang‐Erlandsson, Anna Ukkola, Yannis Markonis, Yuting Yang, Peter Greve
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-17-811-2026

Research Groups

• Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
• Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
• Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
• Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
• Anthropocene Laboratory, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
• ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
• Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
• Department of Water Resources and Environmental Modeling, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Praha – Suchdol, Czech Republic
• State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
• Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere Sciences of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of extreme precipitation on projected blue-green water partitioning using an ensemble of 12 Earth system models. The results show that increases in extreme five-day precipitation are associated with larger blue water shares.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between extreme precipitation and blue-green water partitioning

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, focusing on vegetated and hydrologically active land areas
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1985-2014) and future period (2071-2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 12 CMIP6 Earth system models
• Data sources: Observation-based datasets, including GPCC precipitation, G-RUN runoff, and GLEAM transpiration

Main Results

• Projected changes in blue-green water partitioning are spatially heterogeneous rather than dominated by a uniform global shift.
• Increases in extreme five-day precipitation are most strongly associated with larger blue water shares.
• Leaf area index tends to favour larger green water shares and counteract the blueward influence of stronger precipitation extremes.

Contributions

• This study provides a process-based perspective on projected blue-green water partitioning and its hydroecological implications.
• The results highlight the importance of considering extreme precipitation events in climate change impact assessments.

Funding

• This research was funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under grant agreement number 725546.

Citation

@article{Heselschwerdt2026Large,
  author = {Heselschwerdt, Simon P. and Wagener, Thorsten and Wang‐Erlandsson, Lan and Ukkola, Anna and Markonis, Yannis and Yang, Yuting and Greve, Peter},
  title = {Large impact of extreme precipitation on projected blue–green water partitioning},
  journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/esd-17-811-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-811-2026}
}