Bimpiri et al. (2026) Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance

Identification

• Journal: Earth System Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-29
• Authors: Kyriaki Bimpiri, Thomas Hocking, Thorsten Mauritsen
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-17-877-2026

Research Groups

• Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University
• Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University

Short Summary

This study evaluates climate models' ability to represent both the trend and magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance, using satellite observations as a reference. The results show that most models underestimate the observed trend in the energy imbalance.

Objective

• Evaluate the performance of global climate models in simulating the magnitude and trend of the Earth's energy imbalance

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale
• Temporal Scale: 1850-2100, with a focus on the period 2001-2025

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 models (30 climate models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)
• Data sources: Satellite observations from CERES mission, reanalysis data from ERA5, and model simulations from CMIP6

Main Results

• The majority of CMIP6 models underestimate the observed trend in the energy imbalance
• 13 out of 30 models are consistent with the observational data within the 5%–95% confidence interval for the magnitude of the energy imbalance
• The trend in the energy imbalance is underestimated by most models, with only a few models showing an agreement with observations

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between climate sensitivity and the magnitude of the energy imbalance
• The results suggest that models with moderate climate sensitivities (3-5 K) best simulate the observed energy imbalance

Funding

• Not specified in the paper

Citation

@article{Bimpiri2026Climate,
  author = {Bimpiri, Kyriaki and Hocking, Thomas and Mauritsen, Thorsten},
  title = {Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance},
  journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/esd-17-877-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-877-2026}
}