Paçal et al. (2026) A multivariate analysis of atmospheric drivers for Western European heatwaves

Identification

• Journal: Earth System Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-13
• Authors: Aytaç Paçal, Birgit Haßler, Katja Weigel, Miguel‐Ángel Fernández‐Torres, Gustau Camps‐Valls, Veronika Eyring
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-17-955-2026

Research Groups

• Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
• University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), Bremen, Germany
• Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), LeganÚs, Madrid, Spain
• Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València (UV), València, Spain

Short Summary

This study applies a spatiotemporal Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to ERA5 reanalysis data to identify compact representations of multivariate, year-round heatwave patterns over Western Europe. The VAE captures the interplay and temporal evolution between different atmospheric variables in their contributions to heatwaves.

Objective

• Investigate the complex dynamics of heatwaves using a multivariate approach considering multiple atmospheric processes and local drivers.
• Identify distinct atmospheric circulation patterns that align with seasonal dynamics even when applied to detrended and deseasonalized data.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Western Europe, North Atlantic region (75 °  W to 60 °  E and from 30 to 75 °  N)
• Temporal Scale: Daily values, 11-d heatwave samples centered on near-surface temperature extremes in Western Europe

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Variational Autoencoder (VAE), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) for clustering
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis dataset, hourly data aggregated into daily values using variable-specific temporal operators

Main Results

• The VAE captures the interplay and temporal evolution between different atmospheric variables in their contributions to heatwaves.
• Distinct atmospheric circulation patterns are identified that align with seasonal dynamics even when applied to detrended and deseasonalized data.
• Recent summer heatwaves occupy a distinct region in the latent space, consistent with the strong warming-driven intensification of these events.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the complex dynamics of heatwaves using a multivariate approach considering multiple atmospheric processes and local drivers.
• The VAE model captures changes in the multivariate structure of heatwave-related variables beyond simple mean warming.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Paçal2026multivariate,
  author = {Paçal, Aytaç and Haßler, Birgit and Weigel, Katja and Fernández‐Torres, Miguel‐Ángel and Camps‐Valls, Gustau and Eyring, Veronika},
  title = {A multivariate analysis of atmospheric drivers for Western European heatwaves},
  journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/esd-17-955-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-955-2026}
}