Yang et al. (2026) Disentangling the key drivers of water balance in Central Asia's Lake Balkhash: A relative contribution assessment

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-08
• Authors: Ruibiao Yang, Jianmin Wu, Guojing Gan, RB Guo
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
• College of Nanjing, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Short Summary

This study introduces the Hydrological Analysis and Disentanglement Framework (HADF) to assess the drivers of Lake Balkhash's water balance. The results reveal a system defined by substantial opposing forces, with human water withdrawal dominating inflow decline during the intensive intervention period and climate-driven potential for recovery being neutralized by sustained human consumption.

Objective

• Quantitatively separate the relative contributions of climate change and direct human activities to inflow variations across three distinct historical periods using the Budyko framework.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Central Asia's Lake Balkhash basin, covering approximately 413,000 km2.
• Temporal Scale: 1931–2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Hybrid hydrological reconstruction model combining SEGSWAT+ with machine learning error correction.
• Data sources: Digital Elevation Model (DEM), soil properties, land use/land cover maps, glacier inventories, glacier elevation changes, meteorological forcings, observed streamflow data.

Main Results

• The study reveals that human water withdrawal was the dominant driver of inflow decline during the intensive intervention period (1970–1990).
• Climate-driven potential for recovery (+10.80 km3 yr−1) was almost entirely neutralized by sustained human consumption (−11.36 km3 yr−1) during the recent period (1991–2024).

Contributions

• This study provides a system-level quantitative explanation for the lake's historical dynamics, disentangling the individual contributions of climate change and direct human activities to inflow variations.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42122003)
• Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA23000000)
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS) Start-up Grant

Citation

@article{Yang2026Disentangling,
  author = {Yang, Ruibiao and Wu, Jianmin and Gan, Guojing and Guo, RB},
  title = {Disentangling the key drivers of water balance in Central Asia's Lake Balkhash: A relative contribution assessment},
  journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026}
}