Merk et al. (2026) The impact of calibration strategies on future evapotranspiration projections: a SWAT-T comparison of three hydrological modeling approaches in West Africa

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-20
• Authors: Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Manuel Rauch, Jan Bliefernicht, Markus Disse
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-4529-2026

Research Groups

• Hydrology Group, University of Benin
• Climate Modeling Department, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of calibration strategies on future hydrological changes in West Africa, with a focus on actual evapotranspiration (AET) dynamics. The findings show that AET increases under all calibration strategies, and a specific plant growth modeling approach can be used as a proxy to predict AET rates.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of calibration strategies on future hydrological changes in West Africa.
• Evaluate the role of actual evapotranspiration (AET) in shaping future hydrological dynamics.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: West Africa, with a focus on the Bétérou Catchment in Benin.
• Temporal Scale: Near-future period (2031–2050) and far-future period (2070–2099).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT-T model for hydrological modeling, ISIMIP3b (CMIP6) for future climate data.
• Data sources: Standardized future climate data from ISIMIP3b with five GCMs and three emission scenarios.

Main Results

• AET increases under all calibration strategies, with the highest changes observed in the "Q, LAI, AET" approach.
• The combined "Q + LAI" approach can be used as a proxy to predict AET rates.
• Contrasting predictions of future changes depending on single GCMs are simulated.

Contributions

• This study contributes to an improved understanding of water availability assessment in West Africa by highlighting the relevance of uncertainty integration in climate-hydrological modeling.
• The findings provide insights into the role of calibration strategies in shaping future hydrological dynamics, particularly for AET dominant regions like West Africa.

Funding

• This research was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 program (project code: [insert project code]) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

Citation

@article{Merk2026impact,
  author = {Merk, Fabian and Schaffhauser, Timo and Anwar, Faizan and Rauch, Manuel and Bliefernicht, Jan and Disse, Markus},
  title = {The impact of calibration strategies on future evapotranspiration projections: a SWAT-T comparison of three hydrological modeling approaches in West Africa},
  journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-30-4529-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4529-2026}
}