Rinat et al. (2026) The complex effect of climate change and urbanization on streamflow in small–medium eastern Mediterranean catchments

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-20
• Authors: Yair Rinat, Moshe Armon, Efrat Morin
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-4565-2026

Research Groups

Geological Survey of Israel, Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Short Summary

This study examines the impact of climate change and urbanization on streamflow in small to medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments. The results show that urbanization leads to a significant increase in mean peak discharge and flood volume, while projected rainfall changes result in decreases in these metrics.

Objective

• Investigate the combined effect of climate change and urbanization on streamflow characteristics in small to medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments.
• Examine how future rainfall patterns, soil water storage, and land use changes affect hydrological response under different scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Small to medium-sized basins (10–100 km2) in the eastern Mediterranean region.
• Temporal Scale: Late 20th century and late 21st century climate scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: WRF (weather research and forecasting) model, DREAM water-balance model, GB-HYDRA hydrological model.
• Data sources: Rainfall data from radar records, potential evapotranspiration rates calculated using daily mean temperature and diurnal temperature range.

Main Results

• Urbanization leads to a significant increase in mean peak discharge (43%) and flood volume (41%).
• Projected rainfall changes result in decreases in mean peak discharge (-21%) and flood volume (-30%).
• The combined effect of climate change and urbanization produces contrasting trends, with urbanization dominating the hydrological response.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into the complex interplay between climate change and land use changes on streamflow characteristics in small to medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments. The results highlight the need for integrated high-resolution modeling and future land-use planning to support effective flood mitigation and water-management strategies.

Funding

• This research was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (grant number 2019-01-0041).
• The study also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 821205.

Citation

@article{Rinat2026complex,
  author = {Rinat, Yair and Armon, Moshe and Morin, Efrat},
  title = {The complex effect of climate change and urbanization on streamflow in small–medium eastern Mediterranean catchments},
  journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-30-4565-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4565-2026}
}