Mi et al. (2026) Four decades of full-depth profiles reveal layer-resolved drivers of reservoir thermal regimes and episodic hypolimnetic warming

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-21
• Authors: Chenxi Mi, Bo Gai, Xiangzhen Kong, Yuzhe Jiang, Chun Ngai Chan, Karsten Rinke
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-4611-2026

Research Groups

• Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany
• Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, Germany

Short Summary

This study developed a novel analytical framework to investigate spatiotemporal temperature dynamics in Rappbode Reservoir over four decades. The framework integrated long-term monitoring and process-based modeling to quantify the contributions of hydro-meteorological and operational drivers on depth-specific temperature changes.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of thermal structure on ecological dynamics in lakes and reservoirs, with a focus on stratified systems.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Rappbode Reservoir, Germany's largest drinking-water reservoir.
• Temporal Scale: Four decades (1980-2020) of high-resolution temperature profiles and concurrent hydro-meteorological records.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Process-based modeling (e.g., temperature profile simulations).
• Data sources: High-resolution temperature profiles, satellite data, reanalysis products, and in-situ measurements.

Main Results

• Depth-specific statistical attributions of hydro-meteorological and operational drivers on temperature changes.
• Late-stratification hypolimnetic warming linked to intensified deep withdrawals and downward transport of warm upper-layer water into the hypolimnion.
• Up to 10 °C episodic hypolimnetic warming in four specific years attributed to intensified deep withdrawals.

Contributions

• Development of a novel two-step analytical framework integrating long-term monitoring and process-based modeling for spatiotemporal temperature dynamics analysis.
• Quantification of depth-specific statistical attributions of hydro-meteorological and operational drivers on temperature changes, providing new insights into ecological processes in stratified waters.

Funding

• German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the project "Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Ecosystems" (01LP1601A).
• Helmholtz Association through the project "Sustainable Water Management for a Changing World" (W2/W3-902).

Citation

@article{Mi2026Four,
  author = {Mi, Chenxi and Gai, Bo and Kong, Xiangzhen and Jiang, Yuzhe and Chan, Chun Ngai and Rinke, Karsten},
  title = {Four decades of full-depth profiles reveal layer-resolved drivers of reservoir thermal regimes and episodic hypolimnetic warming},
  journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-30-4611-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4611-2026}
}