Jin et al. (2026) Global escalation of more frequent and intense compound heatwave-extreme precipitation events

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-19
• Authors: Haoyu Jin, Ke Zhang, Moyang Liu, Yang Xu, Lijun Chao, Pengfei Zhang
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-5229-2026

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210024, China
• Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210024, China
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210024, China
• China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory, Beijing, 100081, China

Short Summary

This study examines the changes in compound heatwave-extreme precipitation (CHWEP) events and their corresponding single extremes from 1980 to 2100 using climate observations and projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the global escalation of more frequent and intense CHWEP events and their spatial contrasts with single extreme events.
• Quantify the distinct dynamics of compound versus standalone hazards and their implications for climate resilience and early warning systems.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on mid-to-high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and tropical areas.
• Temporal Scale: 1980-2024 (historical period) and 2056-2100 (future projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5-Land, MERRA-2, JRA-55 reanalysis datasets, and six CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for future projections.
• Data sources: Daily precipitation and daily maximum temperature records from reanalysis products and GCM outputs.

Main Results

• CHWEP events exhibit higher frequency, stronger precipitation, and longer heatwave duration in mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
• Tropical CHWEP feature more intense heatwaves than single heatwave events.
• Future projections under both scenarios show intensification of CHWEP and single extreme metrics globally by 2056-2100.

Contributions

• This study provides a critical scientific foundation for improving extreme weather early-warning systems and enhancing societal climate resilience.
• The findings demonstrate that CHWEPs are evolving into a distinct, intensifying hazard class, necessitating their integration into climate resilience, early warning, and adaptation frameworks.

Funding

• State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention (Grant No. 2019DXJF001)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975054 and 41890803)

Citation

@article{Jin2026Global,
  author = {Jin, Haoyu and Zhang, Ke and Liu, Moyang and Yu, Xuan and Xu, Yang and Chao, Lijun and Zhang, Pengfei and Liu, Guoyan},
  title = {Global escalation of more frequent and intense compound heatwave-extreme precipitation events},
  journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-30-5229-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5229-2026}
}