Sadana et al. (2026) Validation of the open-source hydrodynamic model SFINCS on historical river floods at the global scale

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Tarun Sadana, Jeroen Aerts, Dirk Eilander, Bruno Merz, Hans de Moel, Tim Sebastiaan Busker, Veerle Bril, Jens de Bruijn
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-5491-2026

Research Groups

• Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
• Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
• GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
• Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
• International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

Short Summary

This study evaluates the performance of the Super-Fast INundation of CoastS (SFINCS) hydrodynamic model in simulating riverine floods at a global scale. The results show that SFINCS performance improves with upstream basin size, with a global mean Critical Success Index (CSI) of 0.42 for basins larger than 1000 km2 and a CSI of 0.29 for smaller basins.

Objective

• Evaluate the performance of the SFINCS model in simulating riverine floods at a global scale.
• Assess the sensitivity of the model to input data, particularly discharge forcing.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale, with simulations performed for 499 historical flood events across 96 countries and five continents.
• Temporal Scale: Daily time step, with simulations run for each event separately using a fully automated event-based approach.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SFINCS hydrodynamic model, coupled with the GloFAS hydrological model and the GEB model.
• Data sources: Satellite-derived flood extent data from the Cloud to Street database, GloFAS discharge data, and USGS discharge observations.

Main Results

• The results show that SFINCS performance improves with upstream basin size, with a global mean CSI of 0.42 for basins larger than 1000 km2 and a CSI of 0.29 for smaller basins.
• The use of GloFAS discharge data as input to the model resulted in a lower CSI compared to using USGS discharge observations.
• Sensitivity analysis revealed that the choice of discharge forcing has a significant impact on model performance.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive validation of SFINCS performance at a global scale, highlighting its potential for large-scale flood hazard assessment.
• The results emphasize the importance of accurate discharge data input to flood hazard simulations and highlight the need for improved estimation of bathymetry.

Funding

• This research was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 program (grant agreement No. 776186) and the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).

Citation

@article{Sadana2026Validation,
  author = {Sadana, Tarun and Aerts, Jeroen and Eilander, Dirk and Merz, Bruno and Moel, Hans de and Busker, Tim  Sebastiaan and Bril, Veerle and Bruijn, Jens de},
  title = {Validation of the open-source hydrodynamic model SFINCS on historical river floods at the global scale},
  journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-30-5491-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5491-2026}
}