Lennartz et al. (2026) Benefits of the simplified MEV for analyzing hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate

Identification

• Journal: Natural hazards and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-15
• Authors: Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, Bruno Merz
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026

Research Groups

• GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology
• Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg
• Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam

Short Summary

This study investigates the performance of the simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (sMEV) distribution in analyzing hourly precipitation extremes under a changing climate. The results show that the sMEV outperforms the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution in estimating return levels, especially for small sample sizes.

Objective

• Investigate the performance of the sMEV and GEV distributions in estimating hourly precipitation extremes under a changing climate.
• Compare the sensitivity to small samples of the two distributions using the relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Central European domain, covering parts of Germany and neighboring countries.
• Temporal Scale: Three 30-year periods: 1971–2000, 2031–2060, and 2071–2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convection-permitting regional climate model COSMO, driven by the global climate model MIROC5.
• Data sources: High-resolution simulations of hourly precipitation over a large spatial domain.

Main Results

• The sMEV distribution outperforms the GEV distribution in estimating return levels, especially for small sample sizes.
• The sMEV approach yields higher average scaling rates compared to the GEV approach for both 10-year and 100-year return periods.
• The sensitivity of the two distributions to small samples is quantified using the RRMSE.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the performance of the sMEV distribution in analyzing hourly precipitation extremes under a changing climate.
• The results highlight the importance of considering non-stationarity and spatial variability when estimating return levels.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Lennartz2026Benefits,
  author = {Lennartz, Marc and Poschlod, Benjamin and Merz, Bruno},
  title = {Benefits of the simplified MEV for analyzing hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate},
  journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026}
}