Neimry et al. (2026) Droughts in western Central Europe and associated atmospheric circulation patterns since 1844

Identification

• Journal: Weather and Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-10
• Authors: Emile Neimry, Hugues Goosse, Mathieu Jonard
• DOI: 10.5194/wcd-7-1759-2026

Research Groups

• Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Short Summary

This study investigates drought variability over the past 180 years in western Central Europe and its link to atmospheric circulation. The analysis reveals that recent severe and successive droughts have historical precedents and occur within pronounced multidecadal variability.

Objective

• Investigate drought variability over the past 180 years in western Central Europe.
• Relate drought events to atmospheric circulation patterns.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Western Central Europe, defined as Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, northern France, and western Germany.
• Temporal Scale: 1844–2023, with a focus on seasonal drought events occurring in February, May, August, and November.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5, 20CRv3, and ModE-RA reanalyses datasets.
• Data sources: Atmospheric reanalyses, satellite, aircraft, buoy, ship, surface, and upper-air station data.

Main Results

• The study identifies four atmospheric circulation patterns associated with drought events: the Baltic High, British Isles High, North–South Dipole, and European High.
• Droughts have become increasingly associated with the European High over time in all reanalyses for both SPI-3 and SPEI-3 indices.
• The association with the Baltic High has also increased over 1947–2023.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive analysis of drought variability over the past 180 years in western Central Europe, linking it to atmospheric circulation patterns.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both precipitation and evapotranspiration demand when assessing drought severity.

Funding

• This research was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under grant agreement no. [insert grant number].
• Additional funding was provided by the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO).

Citation

@article{Neimry2026Droughts,
  author = {Neimry, Emile and Goosse, Hugues and Jonard, Mathieu},
  title = {Droughts in western Central Europe and associated atmospheric circulation patterns since 1844},
  journal = {Weather and Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/wcd-7-1759-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1759-2026}
}