Tobares (2026) Planificación óptima de embalses de agua en Mendoza, Argentina: un enfoque de análisis de decisiones multicriterio basado en SIG y simulación multiagente

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Identification

• Journal: Open MIND
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-11
• Authors: Emiliano Tobares
• DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18613764

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

The study develops a hybrid framework for reservoir planning in Mendoza that integrates multicriteria GIS analysis with multi-agent simulation (SIG-MAS), finding that the simulation model outperforms statistical models in high-variability river basins.

Objective

• To develop and validate a hybrid framework combining GIS and multi-agent simulation for the spatial selection and hydrological planning of reservoirs in semiarid regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mendoza River basin and Tunuyán River (site selection at 30 m resolution).
• Temporal Scale: 67 years of historical hydrological data, with a specific validation period from 2019 to 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SIG-MAS (Python 3.10+), SARIMA, and Naive Seasonal statistical models.
• Data sources: Historical hydrological data processed in batch mode.

Main Results

• Mendoza River (High variability, CV ≈ 0.65): The SIG-MAS model showed superior performance with an RMSE of 14.6 m³/month and an NSE of 0.830, compared to SARIMA (RMSE = 18.90, NSE = 0.755).
• Tunuyán River (Low variability, CV ≈ 0.35): The Naive Seasonal model performed best with an RMSE of 8.78 m³/month and an NSE of 0.823.
• Calibration Impact: Local calibration of the SARIMA model reduced errors by up to 60% compared to the generic version and eliminated negative NSE values.

Contributions

• Proposes a replicable, spatially explicit decision-making architecture for reservoir planning in semiarid regions.
• Demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating behavioral multi-agent simulations with GIS for hydrological planning in basins with high variability.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Tobares2026Planificación,
  author = {Tobares, Emiliano},
  title = {Planificación óptima de embalses de agua en Mendoza, Argentina: un enfoque de análisis de decisiones multicriterio basado en SIG y simulación multiagente},
  journal = {Open MIND},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.18613764},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18613764}
}