Billing et al. (2026) Model Code and Data for "Future projections of burned area in Europe highlight the importance of human action"

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Identification

• Journal: Open MIND
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-23
• Authors: Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Matthew Forrest, Luke Oberhagemann, Christoph Müller, S. Rolinski, Jessica Hetzer, Simon Bowring, Alex Neidermeier, Thomas Hickler, Kirsten Thonicke
• DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18740008

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the influence of biophysical and socio-economic factors on future wildfire burned areas in Europe using coupled vegetation and fire models. It concludes that while improved fire management can significantly mitigate increases in burned area, it may not fully offset the impacts of severe climate change.

Objective

• To assess the role of socio-economic factors (e.g., fire management capacity, population density, land use) and biophysical factors (e.g., fire weather, vegetation shifts) in shaping future fire regimes across Europe.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Europe.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections (up to the end of the 21st century).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJmL) coupled with two fire models: SPITFIRE and BASE.
• Data sources: Socio-economic and greenhouse gas concentration pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0).

Main Results

• Drivers: Fire weather and fire management capacity are the primary drivers of wildfire activity, while population density, vegetation shifts, and land use are more significant at regional scales.
• Climate Impact: By the end of the century, intensified fire weather alone is projected to increase annual burned area by approximately 39% under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6) and nearly 192% under the high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0).
• Mitigation Potential: Continued improvements in fire management capacity could reduce burned area by 72–92% compared to scenarios without such improvements.
• Residual Risk: Under strong climate change, fire activity is still expected to rise in approximately 55% of Europe's fire-prone regions, even if investments in fire management continue at current levels.

Contributions

The study quantifies the potential of human action and fire management to counteract the increasing risks of wildfires driven by anthropogenic climate change in Europe, highlighting the limits of management in the face of extreme warming.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Billing2026Model,
  author = {Billing, Maik and Bloh, Werner von and Forrest, Matthew and Oberhagemann, Luke and Müller, Christoph and Rolinski, S. and Hetzer, Jessica and Bowring, Simon and Neidermeier, Alex and Hickler, Thomas and Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title = {Model Code and Data for "Future projections of burned area in Europe highlight the importance of human action"},
  journal = {Open MIND},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.18740008},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18740008}
}