Patil et al. (2026) dfaa-analysis: Flood-to-drought and drought-to-flood transition analysis pipeline for Great Britain

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Open MIND
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-30
• Authors: Sopan Patil, Richard Dallison, Afshin Jahanshahi
• DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21703373

Research Groups

• Researchers associated with the study: S.D. Patil, R.J.H. Dallison, and A. Jahanshahi.

Short Summary

This study develops and implements a computational pipeline to analyze flood-to-drought (FTD) and drought-to-flood (DTF) transitions across Great Britain, evaluating how soil moisture and snowpack influence these dynamics under various warming climate scenarios.

Objective

• To quantify the dynamics of hydroclimatic whiplash (FTD and DTF transitions) across 621 catchments in Great Britain and determine the role of soil moisture and snowpack in shaping these transitions under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Great Britain (621 catchments analyzed using CAMELS-GB v2).
• Temporal Scale: Baseline period (Water Years 1982–2010) and future projection period (Water Years 2051–2080).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: HBV rainfall-runoff model; CHESS-SCAPE ensemble (4 members); k-means clustering (with Ward hierarchical cross-checking); Random Forest feature importance; Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression.
• Data sources: CAMELS-GB v2 (observed discharge and hydrometeorological time series and catchment attributes), CHESS-SCAPE climate forcing, and ONS Countries boundary dataset.

Main Results

• Established a transition detection framework using Q5 (floods) and Q80 (droughts) thresholds and the Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI).
• Developed a one-to-one temporally ordered pairing rule to match flood and drought events into FTD and DTF transitions.
• Analyzed transition-gap changes across four RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5).
• Identified catchment typologies through k-means clustering and quantified the influence of 15 CAMELS-GB v2 attributes and simulated snowpack on transition dynamics using Spearman correlations and nested F-tests.

Contributions

• Provides a fully reproducible analysis pipeline for studying hydroclimatic whiplash, integrating high-resolution catchment attributes with ensemble climate projections to isolate the specific impacts of snowpack and soil moisture on flood-drought transitions.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Patil2026dfaaanalysis,
  author = {Patil, Sopan and Dallison, Richard and Jahanshahi, Afshin},
  title = {dfaa-analysis: Flood-to-drought and drought-to-flood transition analysis pipeline for Great Britain},
  journal = {Open MIND},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.21703373},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21703373}
}