Demiral et al. (2026) The Effects of Climate Change on Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Harşit River Basin (Türkiye)

Identification

• Journal: Adıyaman Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-24
• Authors: Gökhan Demiral, Muhammet BAHADIR, Halil İbrahim Zeybek, Mehmet Cüneyd Demirel
• DOI: 10.54365/adyumbd.1963232

Research Groups

• Gökhan Demiral (Adıyaman Üniversitesi)
• Muhammet Bahadır (Türkiye)
• Halil Zeybek (Türkiye)
• Mehmet Cüneyd Demirel (Türkiye)

Short Summary

This study assesses the future impacts of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Harşit River Basin, Türkiye, projecting significant increases in the intensity and frequency of both dry and wet periods by the end of the 21st century.

Objective

• To identify potential meteorological and hydrological drought events in the Harşit River Basin, Türkiye, up to the year 2100 under climate change scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Harşit River Basin, a sub-basin of the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Observation period: 2009–2021
  • Near future period: 2040–2070
  • Far future period: 2071–2100
  • Data evaluated at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month time scales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • HadGEM3-GC31-MM model (for temperature and precipitation projections)
  • TUW hydrological model (for future flow values)
• Data sources:
  • Temperature and precipitation projections from the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model under the SSP585 scenario.
  • Model outputs fed into the TUW hydrological model to derive runoff data.
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data provided by the Directorate General of Mapping.
  • Drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI).

Main Results

• The study projects significant increases in the intensity and frequency of both dry and wet periods in the Harşit River Basin, particularly during the 2071–2100 period.
• This increase in extreme events is expected to raise the risks of both extreme drought and flash floods within the basin.

Contributions

• Provides a basin-scale assessment of future meteorological and hydrological drought events in a vulnerable region (Harşit River Basin, Türkiye) under a high-emission climate change scenario (SSP585).
• Utilizes a coupled climate-hydrological modeling approach (HadGEM3-GC31-MM and TUW model) to project future precipitation and runoff.
• Offers quantitative insights into the changing patterns of drought and wet periods using SPI and SRI at multiple time scales, which can inform regional drought risk management and sustainable water resource planning.

Funding

• Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Demiral2026Effects,
  author = {Demiral, Gökhan and BAHADIR, Muhammet and Zeybek, Halil İbrahim and Demirel, Mehmet Cüneyd},
  title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Harşit River Basin (Türkiye)},
  journal = {Adıyaman Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.54365/adyumbd.1963232},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.54365/adyumbd.1963232}
}