Institute (2026) Data for manuscript "Projections of deep and near-surface layer soil moisture for Europe: long-term mean changes and occurrence of severe droughts"

Identification

• Journal: METIS
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-18
• Authors: Finnish Meteorological Institute
• DOI: 10.57707/fmi-b2share.1pp09-3w829

Research Groups

• Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)

Short Summary

This study projects future soil moisture changes and the occurrence of severe droughts in Europe for both near-surface (0-10 cm) and deep (60-100 cm) soil layers using an ensemble of global climate models.

Objective

• To assess long-term mean changes and the probability of severe drought episodes in European soil moisture across different depth layers and climate scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Europe (Land grid points; Latitude 35.125°N to 71.125°N, Longitude -10.375°E to 44.875°E) with a resolution of 0.25°.
• Temporal Scale: 1950-01-01 to 2100-12-31.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ensemble of global climate model simulations based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).
• Data sources: Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data archive.

Main Results

• Generated multi-model mean and median percent changes for soil moisture at depths of 0-10 cm and 60-100 cm.
• Calculated probabilities for low soil moisture (severe drought episodes) for both depth layers across the four SSP scenarios.
• Data is provided in units of $\text{kg/m}^2$.

Contributions

• Provides a differentiated analysis of soil moisture projections by separating near-surface and deep layers, offering a more nuanced understanding of drought risk and water availability in Europe under various future climate trajectories.

Funding

• European Commission PIISA - Piloting Innovative Insurance Solutions for Adaptation (Reference code: 101112841)

Citation

@article{Institute2026Data,
  author = {Institute, Finnish Meteorological},
  title = {Data for manuscript "Projections of deep and near-surface layer soil moisture for Europe: long-term mean changes and occurrence of severe droughts"},
  journal = {METIS},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.57707/fmi-b2share.1pp09-3w829},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.57707/fmi-b2share.1pp09-3w829}
}