Nandgude et al. (2026) Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Trends, Variability and Dry Spells Pattern in Central Maharashtra Region

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Environment and Climate Change
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-13
• Authors: S. B. Nandgude, D. D. More, S. H. Shinde
• DOI: 10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i15233

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzed 47 years of rainfall data in Central Maharashtra, a rain shadow zone, to characterize rainfall trends, monsoon onset, and the frequency of extreme events and droughts, revealing increasing annual rainfall but also a rising frequency of heavy rainfall events and persistent drought vulnerability.

Objective

• To study the statistical characteristics and trends of weekly, monthly, and annual rainfall, including monsoon onset, heavy rainfall events, and drought occurrences, in the Central Maharashtra Region from 1975 to 2021.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Central Maharashtra Region, India (a rain shadow zone).
• Temporal Scale: 47 years (1975 to 2021).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Mann-Kendall test (for trend analysis), Sen's slope estimation method (for trend magnitude).
• Data sources: Observed rainfall data.

Main Results

• The mean annual rainfall for the Central Maharashtra Region was 593 mm.
• Average monthly rainfall during the monsoon season (June-October) ranged from 76 mm (October) to 157 mm (September).
• The mean onset date of the effective monsoon falls between 1st June and 12th July.
• Annual rainfall trends show an overall increase.
• Weekly rainfall trends indicate an increase for the 36th South-West Monsoon (SWM) week and a decrease for the 39th SWM week.
• Heavy rainfall events (>50 mm) demonstrate a rising frequency, particularly in recent years, suggesting a shift towards high-intensity, short-duration rainfall.
• Moderate droughts occur in 21% of years, and severe droughts occur in 6% of years.
• The region experiences a coexistence of droughts and extreme rainfall events, indicating growing climate risk.

Contributions

• Provides critical insights into long-term rainfall characteristics, trends, and extreme event frequencies for the semi-arid Central Maharashtra Region.
• Highlights the region's vulnerability to rainfall variability, including increasing heavy rainfall events alongside persistent drought occurrences.
• Emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive water management, soil and water conservation, and climate-resilient agricultural practices for sustainable agriculture planning.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Nandgude2026Impact,
  author = {Nandgude, S. B. and More, D. D. and Shinde, S. H.},
  title = {Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Trends, Variability and Dry Spells Pattern in Central Maharashtra Region},
  journal = {International Journal of Environment and Climate Change},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i15233},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i15233}
}