Muhaimeed et al. (2026) Monitoring and Assessment of Agricultural Drought Using Satellite Data: Case Study in Afaj District, Al-Qadisiya Governorate, Southern Iraq

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Environment and Climate Change
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-28
• Authors: Ahmad S. Muhaimeed, Bassam K. Abdul Jabbar, Faisal Ka. Alsaidi, Rash S. Mahmood
• DOI: 10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i35312

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzed spatiotemporal drought severity in Iraq's Afaj District using Sentinel 2 indices for 2019 and 2025, revealing a projected increase in drought severity by 2025, marked by a 28% expansion of bare land and significant impacts on agricultural areas.

Objective

• To analyze the spatiotemporal changes in drought severity in Afaj District of Al-Qadysia Governorate, Southern Iraq, using Sentinel 2 satellite data NDVI, NDWI, and NDDI indices for 2019 and 2025.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Afaj District, Al-Qadysia Governorate, Southern Iraq.
• Temporal Scale: Two specific years: 2019 and 2025.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Satellite-derived indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - NDVI, Normalized Difference Water Index - NDWI, Normalized Difference Drought Index - NDDI) for drought assessment.
• Data sources: Sentinel 2 satellite data.

Main Results

• A significant correlation was found between the satellite indices (NDVI, NDWI, and NDDI), showing wide temporal-spatial variation.
• Five land-use types were identified: weak vegetation, moderate vegetation, urban land, bare land, and water bodies.
• Bare land increased by 28% between 2019 and 2025, while the area for all other land cover classes decreased.
• The study area was classified into five drought classes (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high drought severity) using the NDDI index.
• High drought severity primarily occurred in wetlands and surrounding areas in the northeast part of the study area.
• Moderate drought severity affected 40% of the total area in 2019 and is projected to affect 60% in 2025.
• Results indicate a more severe drought is projected for 2025 compared to 2019.
• The expansion of severely affected land led to a reduction in agricultural and urban land in 2025, attributed to land degradation, reduced productivity from water scarcity, and increased soil salinity, prompting reverse migration.

Contributions

• Provides a quantitative assessment and projection of spatiotemporal drought severity changes for the Afaj District in Southern Iraq using Sentinel 2 satellite indices.
• Identifies specific land-use changes, notably a significant increase in bare land, linked to increasing drought severity.
• Highlights the socio-economic consequences of projected drought, including agricultural decline, urban land reduction, and induced reverse migration.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Muhaimeed2026Monitoring,
  author = {Muhaimeed, Ahmad S. and Jabbar, Bassam K. Abdul and Alsaidi, Faisal Ka. and Mahmood, Rash S.},
  title = {Monitoring and Assessment of Agricultural Drought Using Satellite Data: Case Study in Afaj District, Al-Qadisiya Governorate, Southern Iraq},
  journal = {International Journal of Environment and Climate Change},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i35312},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i35312}
}