Mahamadou et al. (2026) Statistical Assessment of the Extreme Rainfall Event of 2024 in Maradi and Zinder of South-Eastern Niger

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Environment and Climate Change
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-25
• Authors: Yacoubou Mahamadou, Moussa Ouma, D. Abidina
• DOI: 10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i45363

Research Groups

[Not specified in the provided text.]

Short Summary

This study analyzed the 2024 rainy season in south-eastern Niger, determining it to be an exceptional climatic anomaly with record rainfall, surpassing previous extremes and indicating a profound climate mutation in the region.

Objective

• To analyze the specific nature of the 2024 rainy season in south-eastern Niger (Maradi and Zinder) to determine whether it constitutes a climatic anomaly over the last three decades.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: South-eastern Niger (Maradi and Zinder).
• Temporal Scale: 1991–2024 for analysis, with 1991–2020 as the climate normal reference period.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), interannual variability analysis, Gumbel distribution.
• Data sources: NASA data.

Main Results

• Nearly the entire study area significantly exceeded the 1991–2020 climate average of 281 mm.
• SPI values between 0.5 and 2 confirmed 2024 as a year ranging from moderately to extremely wet.
• The year 2024 recorded a record 560 mm of rainfall, surpassing the previous extreme of 519 mm in 2020 within the 1991–2020 period.
• The probability of exceedance for the 2024 rainfall total was estimated at 0.41%.
• 2024 stands out as an exceptional "breakout" event, reflecting a profound climate mutation in south-eastern Niger, particularly with the concentration of extreme wet events in recent years (2020 and 2024).

Contributions

• Quantitatively demonstrates the extreme and anomalous nature of the 2024 rainy season in south-eastern Niger.
• Provides evidence for a profound and recent climate mutation in the region, characterized by a resurgence of extreme wet events.
• Highlights the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (e.g., 2020 and 2024) in a region historically known for droughts, indicating a shift in precipitation regimes.

Funding

[Not specified in the provided text.]

Citation

@article{Mahamadou2026Statistical,
  author = {Mahamadou, Yacoubou and Ouma, Moussa and Abidina, D.},
  title = {Statistical Assessment of the Extreme Rainfall Event of 2024 in Maradi and Zinder of South-Eastern Niger},
  journal = {International Journal of Environment and Climate Change},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i45363},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i45363}
}