Tiwari et al. (2026) Temporal Trends and Future Projections of Reference Evapotranspiration under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Parbati Watershed

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Environment and Climate Change
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Sarvda Nand Tiwari, Vikas Kumar Singh, Shivam, V. K. Singh, P K Mishra, Vipul Chaudhary, Vikash Singh, Subodh Hanwat, Shikha Verma, Vipin Kumar Roshan, Ankit
• DOI: 10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i85598

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

This study evaluates future reference evapotranspiration ($\text{ET}0$) trends in the Parbati watershed across three climate scenarios, finding that $\text{ET}0$ responses are non-uniform and vary significantly by month, scenario, and time period.

Objective

• To assess the temporal trends and future projections of reference evapotranspiration ($\text{ET}_0$) in the Parbati watershed under different climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Parbati watershed.
• Temporal Scale: Three future time slices: FP1 (2027–2042), FP2 (2046–2064), and FP3 (2082–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Hargreaves–Samani method (for $\text{ET}_0$ estimation), Mann–Kendall test (for trend significance), and Sen’s slope estimator (for magnitude and direction of change).
• Data sources: CORDEX regional climate database (CMIP5-based RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios).

Main Results

• General Trend: $\text{ET}_0$ does not change uniformly; responses are highly dependent on the month, the RCP scenario, and the specific future period.
• RCP2.6: Trends were mixed during FP1, predominantly increasing during FP2, and predominantly decreasing during FP3.
• RCP4.5: Showed the most consistent increases, specifically a statistically significant rising trend in June across all three future periods; significant decreases were noted in October (FP1) and April (FP2).
• RCP8.5: Significant declines occurred in September (FP1) and January (FP3), while May showed a significant increase during FP3.
• Variability: Many monthly trends were statistically non-significant at the 5% level, suggesting that interannual variability remains a dominant factor.

Contributions

• Provides essential localized data for irrigation planning, soil-moisture management, watershed conservation, and the development of climate-resilient water-resource management strategies in the Parbati watershed.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Tiwari2026Temporal,
  author = {Tiwari, Sarvda Nand and Singh, Vikas Kumar and Shivam and Singh, V. K. and Mishra, P K and Chaudhary, Vipul and Singh, Vikash and Hanwat, Subodh and Verma, Shikha and Roshan, Vipin Kumar and Ankit},
  title = {Temporal Trends and Future Projections of Reference Evapotranspiration under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Parbati Watershed},
  journal = {International Journal of Environment and Climate Change},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i85598},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2026/v16i85598}
}