Wheen (2026) A First Principles Approach to the 100,000-year Problem

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: arXiv (Cornell University)
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-13
• Authors: Liam Wheen
• DOI: None

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates competing astronomical and geochemical theories of glacial-interglacial cycles, concluding that a linear astronomical feedforward model can largely reproduce the 800,000-year ice volume record.

Objective

• To determine whether the 100,000-year glacial cycle is primarily driven by orbital forcing with Earth system feedbacks (astronomical theory) or by internal dynamics synchronized by orbital forcing (geochemical theory).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: Past 800,000 years

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Budyko energy balance model (augmented), linearized non-linear ice volume models, a novel linear feedforward model (astronomical), and a linear feedback model (geochemical).
• Data sources: Ice volume records, orbital eccentricity data, and Q65 data.

Main Results

• A linear astronomical feedforward model successfully reproduces the 800,000-year ice volume record.
• The absence of the 400,000-year eccentricity period is explained by differing phase lags between tropospheric energy and oceanic heat storage.
• Bulk ocean temperature variations can be explained by eccentricity alone, challenging the necessity of the geochemical theory.
• The geochemical feedback model only shows significant improvement during Marine Isotope Stage 11, suggesting this period is an anomaly rather than a requirement for general feedback mechanisms.
• The use of Q65 data may bias existing models toward geochemical explanations by underrepresenting eccentricity.

Contributions

• Provides a parsimonious explanation for the 100,000-year problem using a linear model, demonstrating that complex non-linear internal dynamics are not strictly necessary to explain the observed palaeoclimate data.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wheen2026First,
  author = {Wheen, Liam},
  title = {A First Principles Approach to the 100,000-year Problem},
  journal = {arXiv (Cornell University)},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://openalex.org/W7154656160}
}