Bhardwaj (2026) Hydroclimatic Variability and Drought Driven Changes in Water Availability in the Southeastern United States

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Identification

• Journal: TigerPrints (Clemson University)
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Kunal Bhardwaj
• DOI: None

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona
• Climate Science Center, University of Alabama
• USGS Southeastern Regional Science Center

Short Summary

This dissertation investigates drought-driven changes in water availability across multiple spatial scales through a comprehensive analysis of climate models, hydrological modeling, and explainable machine learning. The study highlights the importance of considering interacting climatic, physiographic, land-surface, and model-structural controls when assessing drought risk and water availability.

Objective

• Investigate drought-driven changes in water availability across multiple spatial scales
• Evaluate CMIP6 models' ability to reproduce historical meteorological drought characteristics and project future drought changes under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Southeastern United States) and global (using CMIP6 models)
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1979-2014) and future (2020-2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT+, VIC, and CMIP6 climate models
• Data sources: Satellite data (e.g., TRMM), observation data (e.g., USGS streamflow), and reanalysis data (e.g., ERA5)

Main Results

• CMIP6 models capture broad drought patterns but exhibit regional biases
• Future projections indicate stronger drought intensification under SPEI, highlighting the influence of warming-driven evaporative demand
• VIC provides more consistent regional performance in surface water availability simulations
• SHAP-based interpretation indicates that model performance is shaped by watershed characteristics and model structure

Contributions

This dissertation contributes to our understanding of drought risk and water availability by: - Highlighting the importance of considering interacting climatic, physiographic, land-surface, and model-structural controls when assessing drought risk and water availability - Providing a comprehensive analysis of climate models, hydrological modeling, and explainable machine learning in the context of drought research

Funding

• This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) through grant # [insert grant number]
• Additional support provided by the University of Arizona's Climate Science Center

Citation

@article{Bhardwaj2026Hydroclimatic,
  author = {Bhardwaj, Kunal},
  title = {Hydroclimatic Variability and Drought Driven Changes in Water Availability in the Southeastern United States},
  journal = {TigerPrints (Clemson University)},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://openalex.org/W7218278173}
}