Hidalgo‐Muñoz et al. (2011) Trends of extreme precipitation and associated synoptic patterns over the southern Iberian Peninsula

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2011
• Date: 2011-09-02
• Authors: J. M. Hidalgo‐Muñoz, Daniel Argüeso, Sonia Raquel Gámiz‐Fortis, María Jesús Esteban‐Parra, Yolanda Castro‐Díez
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.08.049

Research Groups

Applied Physics Department, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

Short Summary

This study analyzed extreme precipitation trends and associated synoptic patterns in the southern Iberian Peninsula (Andalusia) from 1955-2006, revealing significant spatial and seasonal variability with decreasing winter intensity trends in western/central areas and increasing trends in the southeast, linked to WeMO and NAO indices.

Objective

• To investigate seasonal and monthly trends of extreme precipitation events and their associated synoptic patterns in the southern Iberian Peninsula, and to relate these patterns to large-scale circulation indices (North Atlantic Oscillation and Western Mediterranean Oscillation).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern Iberian Peninsula (Andalusia), analyzed in two sub-areas: western and central (CW) Andalusia, and south-eastern (SE) Andalusia.
• Temporal Scale: 52-year period from 1955 to 2006. Seasonal (excluding summer) and monthly trends were established.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in T-mode coupled with clustering techniques for determining synoptic patterns. Statistical trend analysis was applied to various extreme-precipitation indices.
• Data sources: Daily precipitation records from 86 meteorological stations across Andalusia. Large-scale circulation indices: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO).

Main Results

• Significant spatial and seasonal variability in extreme precipitation trends was observed across the southern Iberian Peninsula.
• In winter, decreasing trends for intensity indices predominated in western and central Andalusia, while positive (increasing) trends were found in the south-eastern zone.
• Spring analysis revealed an overall negative trend in intensity indices, particularly pronounced in March.
• Autumn showed lower significance of trends compared to winter and spring, with only September presenting significant increasing trends in intensity indices.
• Synoptic patterns associated with heavy precipitation events were clearly differentiated between the western/central and south-eastern sub-areas.
• The observed tendencies in extreme precipitation indices were consistent with changes in the frequency of the main synoptic patterns identified for each area.
• Most synoptic patterns associated with heavy precipitation events were related to highly negative Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) values.
• Only some of the patterns linked to heavy rainfall in the western and central area exhibited significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed regional analysis of extreme precipitation trends over the southern Iberian Peninsula using a dense network of 86 stations, highlighting significant spatial and seasonal variability over short distances.
• Identifies and differentiates synoptic patterns associated with extreme precipitation for distinct sub-regions within Andalusia.
• Establishes relationships between regional extreme precipitation trends and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (WeMO and NAO), particularly emphasizing the strong link with negative WeMO values.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{HidalgoMuñoz2011Trends,
  author = {Hidalgo‐Muñoz, J. M. and Argüeso, Daniel and Gámiz‐Fortis, Sonia Raquel and Esteban‐Parra, María Jesús and Castro‐Díez, Yolanda},
  title = {Trends of extreme precipitation and associated synoptic patterns over the southern Iberian Peninsula},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2011},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.08.049},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.08.049}
}