Dumas et al. (2013) The influence of climate change on flood risks in France – first estimates and uncertainty analysis

Identification

• Journal: Natural hazards and earth system sciences
• Year: 2013
• Authors: Patrice Dumas, Stéphane Hallegatte, P. Quintana-Segu amp igrave, Éric Martin
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-13-809-2013

Research Groups

• Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
• Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD)
• École Nationale de la Météorologie
• Observatori de l'Ebre (URL - CSIC)
• CNRM-GAME, UMR3589 (Météo-France, CNRS)

Short Summary

This study proposes a methodology to project the evolution of river flood damages in mainland France under climate change, concluding that future national losses may change significantly, but local estimates are highly uncertain due primarily to the choice of climate downscaling technique.

Objective

• Develop and apply a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages in mainland France resulting from global climate change.
• Quantify the uncertainty in future flood loss estimates, specifically investigating the influence of different climate downscaling techniques.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland France (national and local scales).
• Temporal Scale: Projections covering the 21st century (implied by "over this century").

Methodology and Data

• Models used: The study employs a methodology that investigates the full causal chain linking global climate change to local economic flood losses, requiring the integration of climate models, downscaling techniques, hydrological models (implied), and damage assessment models (implied).
• Data sources: Global climate change scenarios; comparison of two distinct climate downscaling techniques with comparable skill in reproducing reference river flows.

Main Results

• Future national-scale flood losses in France are projected to change significantly over the course of this century, requiring adjustments in risk management and land-use planning policies.
• Estimating future flood losses, particularly at the local scale, is currently highly challenging and considered "out of reach" due to high uncertainty.
• A very large source of uncertainty in the projections arises from the choice of climate downscaling technique; two techniques with comparable performance in reference flow reproduction yielded very different estimates of future flows and subsequent local losses.

Contributions

• Demonstration of a comprehensive methodology capable of investigating the full causal chain from global climate change drivers to local economic flood losses.
• Provision of first estimates regarding the potential significant changes in future flood losses across France due to climate change.
• Quantification and highlighting of the critical uncertainty introduced by climate downscaling techniques in flood risk projections, even when techniques show similar skill in historical validation.

Funding

• [Information not provided in the abstract/metadata.]

Citation

@article{Dumas2013influence,
  author = {Dumas, Patrice and Hallegatte, Stéphane and igrave, P. Quintana-Segu amp and Martin, Éric},
  title = {The influence of climate change on flood risks in France – first estimates and uncertainty analysis},
  journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  year = {2013},
  doi = {10.5194/nhess-13-809-2013},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-809-2013}
}

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