Xiaoqin et al. (2025) Spatial multiple variables and single variable updating via hydrologic system differential response method in real-time flood forecasting

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-07-15
• Authors: Zhang Xiaoqin, Zhengyang Zhao, Weimin Bao, Simin Qu, Peng Shi
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133910

Research Groups

• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, China
• Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro Science, Hohai University, China

Short Summary

The study develops and evaluates three spatial updating approaches based on the Hydrologic System Differential Response (HSDR) method to correct errors in real-time flood forecasting using the Xinanjiang model.

Objective

• To establish and compare spatial multiple variable and single variable updating methods to reduce errors in real-time flood forecasting by characterizing the relationship between model output errors and influencing variables.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Two river basins in China.
• Temporal Scale: Real-time flood forecasting (evaluated across increasing lead times).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Xinanjiang model; Hydrologic System Differential Response (HSDR) method.
• Data sources: Observed hydrometeorological data (rainfall, evaporation, and discharge).
• Updating Approaches:
  • SDPEW: Spatial multiple variables updating (simultaneously updates rainfall, evaporation, and initial soil moisture).
  • SDP: Spatial single variable updating of rainfall.
  • SDR: Spatial single variable updating of runoff.

Main Results

• All three HSDR-based approaches (SDPEW, SDP, and SDR) improved flood forecasting accuracy and maintained stable performance as lead times increased.
• The spatial runoff updating approach (SDR) generally demonstrated superior performance compared to SDP and SDPEW.
• The spatial multiple variables updating approach (SDPEW) outperformed the spatial rainfall updating approach (SDP) specifically when sufficient observed data were available.
• The efficiency of HSDR in utilizing outlet discharge information varies depending on the spatial variable being updated.

Contributions

• Expands the HSDR method to include spatial multiple variables updating.
• Provides theoretical and practical guidance for the selection of appropriate variables for error correction in real-time flood forecasting based on error sources and model structure.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Xiaoqin2025Spatial,
  author = {Xiaoqin, Zhang and Zhao, Zhengyang and Qin, Rui and Bao, Weimin and Qu, Simin and Shi, Peng},
  title = {Spatial multiple variables and single variable updating via hydrologic system differential response method in real-time flood forecasting},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133910},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133910}
}